Don't Be a Tool

Note: The following isn’t your average list. Anyone can tell you that Donald Brown or Knowshon Moreno is a sleeper, or that LT is on his way out. In the following article I dig deep to find the unpopular choices that could make or break your draft.

Overvalued:
Let someone else draft these guys.

Larry Fitzgerald WR, ARI (ADP-1.07): Anquan Boldin being in camp could spell lesser numbers for Fitz. When the two played during the regular season last year, Boldin caught 13 more passes and scored nearly twice as many TDs. Couple this with the fact that the Cardinals will likely pass less often this season (they threw the ball more last year than any other team, their receivers caught more passes than any team since 1995, and they drafted a bruising RB with their #1 pick), and it’s hard to see him putting up the dominating numbers of late 2008. Still, I’m not pushing Fitz’s value down too much, but drafting him #1 at WR seems too steep considering similar value might be found a round later.

Michael Turner RB, ATL (ADP-1.04): Turner is no doubt one of the best backs in the league, but there are a few factors suggesting he is overvalued in most leagues. He carried the ball a league high 376 times last year. Even coach Mike Smith said “We know he can’t sustain 370 carries over a number of years, we have to reduce the load we put on him last year”. He’s also not much of a pass catcher. Turner had only 6 catches for 41 yards last season. Sounds to me like Jerious Norwood could see more playing time as relief and play 90% of passing downs.

Tony Romo QB, DAL (ADP-5.05): Only Jon Kitna has turned the ball over more in the last 2 years and he just lost one of his best weapons. I don’t see Romo being anywhere near the top 10 for QBs this season.

Lee Evans WR, BUF (ADP-6.09): This might seem obvious given the addition of Terrell Owens, and Evans’ lack luster performance the past few years. But, I think even the late 6th round is too much to pay for Mr. Evans. Only one time in the last eight years has a WR playing on the other side of Owens totaled more than 800 yards, none have scored more than 7 TDs.

Undervalued:
These unsung heroes could be the key to your draft.

Pierre Thomas RB, NO (ADP-3.11): Maybe not in a PPR, but in a standard scoring league, Thomas should be selected before Reggie Bush (ADP-2.09). Thomas is bigger, more physical back, who will likely steal most of the goal-line carries. Add this to the fact that Bush’s knee isn’t 100% and has been a bit injury prone, and it’s an easy call to move Thomas ahead of him on my board.

Jamaal Charles RB, KC (ADP-12.09): While Larry Johnson has the starting gig locked down, he has had some injury and off the field problems lately. Charles is younger, much faster, and a far better receiver. It’s likely he will see significant playing time, even if Johnson is healthy. A late round flier on him could pay dividends if LJ continues his slide.

Domenik Hixon WR, NYG (ADP-11.11): Steve Smith is more of a slot receiver and 1st round selection Hakeem Nicks will need time to develop. That makes Hixon the #1 guy in New York by default. While I don’t expect to see Plaxico-type numbers from him. He did average 4 catches for 55 yards with 2 TDs when Plax was out last year.

Demetrius Williams WR, BAL (ADP-13.01): Sure he’s a #3 and he had an Achilles surgery that sidelined him for most of last season, but he’s behind Mark Clayton and the ageless Derrick Mason and he’s bigger and faster than both of those guys. He’s also added 5 pounds of muscle and seems serious about making a run at a starting gig.

Sleepers:
These guys are going mostly undrafted. They may be worth a late flier.

Jeff Garcia QB, OAK (ADP-N/A): Oakland may be committed to playing JaMarcus Russell for the rest of his life based on his salary, but if he does end up working his way to the bench, Garcia could be a more than serviceable option at QB. Oakland has one of the youngest offenses in the league and they may have the fastest pair of WRs in the NFL (Darrius Heyward Bay and Johnnie Lee Higgins).

Daunte Culpepper QB, DET (ADP-N/A): I know, 2004 called and they want their QB back (insert “Prices Right” fail here). Consider the fact that they have one of the best WRs in the NFL. Also consider that the Lions have added some upgraded receiving options with Maurice Morris, Brandon Pettigrew, Bryant Johnson, and Dennis Northcutt. Plus, Culpepper is in much better shape coming into camp and Matthew Stafford probably won’t see any action until late in the year. As far as fliers go, I don’t know if they get any better than this.

Chris Brown RB, HOU (ADP-N/A): Ryan Moats, rookies Arian Foster and Jeremiah Johnson, and Chris Brown are all competing to back up Steve Slaton. Brown has cracked 1,000 yards in a single season and was a staple of the Tennessee backfield until multiple injuries landed him on the IR. He’s clearly ahead of the pack for this position and there is a good chance he’ll see a lot of time around the goal-line. Slaton scored on only 4 of 21 carries inside the 5-yard line last year, worst amongst RBs.

Brent Celek TE, PHI (ADP-N/A): Celek showed flashes of brilliance last season, and has now locked up the starting gig in Philadelphia’s pass happy offense. That alone is enough to justify a late round selection.

Dark Horse Sleepers:
You may have never heard of these guys. Watch the waiver wire or spend a very late pick on one of these guys to stick at the end of your bench.

Earl Bennett WR, CHI: Someone has to catch the ball in Chicago. Devon Hester and Greg Olson should account for most of the production, but don’t rule out Bennett who caught more than 75 passes three years in a row at Vanderbilt, one of those seasons with Jay Cutler as his QB.

James Davis RB, CLE: Jamal Lewis will be 30 before opening day, he’s had multiple surgeries on his knees, and he averaged just 3.6 a carry last year. Davis, their 6th round selection, looks to be the #2 who might see increased playing time if Lewis continues to struggle.

Travis Beckum TE, NYG: He was college football’s most productive TE until he missed all of last season with injuries. The Giants liked him enough to spend an early 3rd round pick on him, and the lack of pass catchers will certainly open up opportunities on this team.

Rashad Jennings RB, JAX: Maurice Jones-Drew isn’t built to carry the ball 350+ times in a season. The Jaguars are going to need to spell him at some point. This 230 pound bruiser they selected in the 7th round is a likely candidate for short-yardage and goal line situations.

With draft season almost upon us, I thought I’d share a handy statistic I’ve been tinkering with. This number, which I’ve coined “minimum expected value” (statisticians probably have another name), can be found by subtracting the standard deviation from the mean. What the hell does that [ahem] mean? Let me explain…

Standard Deviation
Last year in my article on the Magic Formula, I described standard deviation. It’s the amount one thing differs, on average, from another. For our purposes here, think of it as the “plus or minus.” We’ve all heard someone say, “He scores an average of 30 points, plus or minus 5.” That plus or minus is the standard deviation. If you’re a masochist, go ahead and read the Wikipedia entry. As for understanding it completely, don’t worry; what’s important to know is that it measures consistency. From a fantasy perspective, “consistency” refers to how widely varying a player’s point total will be from week to week. The smaller the point swing, the smaller the standard deviation, and thusly the more consistent a player is.

For the 2007 season, who was the best fantasy QB? Tom Brady, of course. But what if I asked you this: Who was the most consistent QB? Tom Brady? Nope. It was David Garrard. To help you understand what I’m talking about, let’s take a look at the top five fantasy QBs. [For more players and positions, download my Excel spreadsheet.]

Now compare that to a list of the most consistent QBs, those with the lowest standard deviation.

As you can see, this is a very different list. Some of the QBs’ point totals here are actually quite low. Standard deviation, remember, can only tell us how consistent a player is. So in the case of Tarvaris Jackson, for example, the standard deviation alone does us no good because Jackson is consistently bad. On that basis, standard deviation alone is basically a useless stat in fantasy football. However, if we take a player’s standard deviation and subtract it from his weekly scoring output, we end up with an incredibly useful number, his minimum expected value.

Minimum expected value (MEV) is best defined as the lowest total points per week you can expect from any given player. By knowing this number, you can predict a player’s relative value. David Garrard, for example, can reasonably be expected to score at least 12.07 points each week (his average, 18 points, minus his standard deviation, 5.93 points). Take a look at the top five QBs by MEV.

Each week, we can expect Tom Brady to put up at least 18.73 points. No, he won’t do it every week, but he’s likely to do it much more often than not, and more importantly, he’s likely to do it way more often than anyone else. So there, that proves it: Tom Brady is the top fantasy QB. Duh. No, the real benefit of MEV is that it highlights guys like David Garrard and Big Ben, too. In fact, on a weekly basis, we can expect Garrard to outscore every QB in the NFL besides Brady. The math doesn’t lie, and if you subscribe to the theory that consistency is king, MEV can be an invaluable compass come draft day, especially as you hunt for value in the middle rounds, where championship seasons are truly built. Where did Garrard, Hasselbeck, and Big Ben go in your draft last year? I bet it wasn’t in the first five rounds.

The best part about MEV is that it’s universal. It works across players, teams, sports…you name it. Check the spreadsheet again where I detail QBs, RBs, WRs, and TEs. Just a quick glance and you’ll see why guys like Garrard, Ronnie Brown, and Andre Johnson could be the key to your season.

Discussion
After this article was posted, TFFG forum member 7grain pointed out an important fact about SD and MEV on the comments thread: “One Standard Deviation, by definition, encompasses 68% of occurrances. (34% above the average, and 34% below the average). Beyond one STD is 32% of occurrences: 16% above 1 STD and 16% below 1 STD. So you could “geek it up” a little bit more, but not scare people away, by saying that a player beat their MEV 84% of the time. And that’s 11 games out of a 13 game season.” If it seems like too much, just know this: He is absolutely right. Any player should beat their MEV 84% of the time.

This ought to be a bit of relief for the Steelers, they are playing where they won’t have to deal with rain, snow, wind or mud. We expect the Steeles offense to get back on their game here and win this one in a dominant fashion.
Pittsburgh
Like I keep saying, nothing breathes life into an offense like the St. Louis Rams. Only five teams have allowed more points. This could be a very big game for the Pittsburgh offense.

Willie Parker should have a great game this week. He’s better suited to run on this surface than on a muddy, slick field. The Rams have a below-average run defense and only three teams have allowed more rushing touchdowns, so a big game by Parker is possible — maybe 120ish yards and 1-2 TDs.

Working on a dry field and with no wind also should help Santonio Holmes. With his speed, he’s Pittsburgh’s best deep threat, and those plays are easier to hit in these ideal conditions. He moves up our rankings this week, and it comes at the expense of Hines Ward, who’s better at working short routes underneath.

Above-average matchup for Heath Miller. He’s a big part of Pittsburgh’s red-zone offense, and the Rams have struggled with tight ends. St. Louis has allowed a healthy ratio of touchdowns to tight ends (7) as wide receivers (12), and that’s been a big part of Pittsburgh’s offense (which is at 11 TDs to tight ends and 17 to wide receivers).

Ben Roethlisberger hasn’t thrown for 200 yards in any of his last five games, but a lot of that has been weather related. That won’t be a problem on Thursday. In his six previous games, Roethlisberger averaged 243 passing yards, with 16 TDs in those six games. He’ll face a defense that’s below-average in terms of passing yards and passing touchdowns.

St. Louis
We’ll call this a slightly above-average matchup for the St. Louis passing game. Pittsburgh ranks 4th in pass defense, but some holes have cropped up recently in their secondary. Over the last nine weeks, they’re one of only two teams that’s allowed 3-plus TD passes four times. And the Steelers have also lost four of their past five on the road, with all but one of those losses against teams with losing records (Cardinals, Broncos, Jets). So maybe Marc Bulger, who’s from Pittsburgh, can hit some plays and keep the Rams competitive in this game. When he’s relative healthy and gets some time to throw, Bulger is a top quarterback. In his last four relatively complete games, Bulger has averaged 247 passing yards, with 5 TDs in those four games. Certainly, whatever touchdowns the Rams score in this game should come through the air. The Steelers have allowed 18 passing versus only 4 rushing TDs, while the Rams have scored 15 passing versus only 5 rushing. So every time the Rams score in this game — and they should score 2-3 TDs — there’s about an 80 percent chance it will be through the air.

Torry Holt isn’t having a great year. He’s at 75 receiving yards per game. That’s about 15 yards below what you’d hope for him. But he’s still a scorer. He’s caught 7 of the team’s 15 TD passes. So if the Rams throw 2 TDs in this game (and there’s a good chance they will), then Holt almost certainly will grab one of them. It’s an Above-average matchup for Isaac Bruce as well.
It’s a below-average matchup for Steven Jackson. Pittsburgh is having some problems right now, but this is still one of the league’s elite run defenses. Only Minnesota and Baltimore have allowed fewer rushing yards, and the Steelers have allowed a league-low 4 rushing TDs. In their last 62 games, the Steelers have allowed only 31 rushing touchdowns. So the odds are stacked against Jackson getting in the end zone. We’re not moving him too far down our board, however, because Jackson is a heck of a player. He’s also healthy, at home, and in top form. He ran for 143 yards and a touchdown last week against an above-average Green Bay run defense. He’s certainly capable of punching out 100 yards and a touchdown, even against this defense. Jackson, recall, ran for 142 yards and scored 4 TDs in a game against Minnesota’s top-ranked run defense last year. Bottom line is… he’s a must-start.