Don't Be a Tool

Last week, I featured a few players who have officially lost their “sleeper status” through added hype over the past few months. This time around, I’ve got the real deal for you. Five guys who are still flying under the watchful eyes of most experts that you can snag in your drafts.

QUARTERBACKS

Ben Roethlisberger. On average, he’s being taken a full two rounds after Matt Ryan and Jay Cutler, though he’s more than capable of outproducing either (if not both) of them. His MockDraftCentral.com ADP is #93, which is the equivalent of the late 8th round pick in a 12 team league (or early 10th in a 10 teamer). I’ll take some of that, please.

Matt Hasselbeck. With a real, actual WR (T.J. Houshmanzadeh), it’s hard to not like Hasselbeck as a #2 QB this year. Especially at #107 overall. Are you kidding?

Trent Edwards. I’ve seen people claim that they’d rather have Brett Favre. Blech. Edwards, at pick #138, and with Terrell Owens and Lee Evans to throw to, will outperform Favre by leaps and bounds. T.O. always seems to perform well in his first year in a new city, and the Bills’ rushing attack is good enough to keep defenses honest. It all adds up to a big year for Edwards. Well worth the late round flyer.

Jason Campbell. He’s being written off by most folks, but at pick #182, I love him as a QB#3 with upside to be much better. He’s got some weapons to work with. He’ll face the Eagles and Giants twice, but he’ll benefit from a last place schedule in non-divisional games.

Shaun Hill. It skeeves me that Matthew Berry is now trumpeting him as a sleeper, but he’s right on this one. He’s the 30th QB taken overall, and the Niners’ new OC has a running mindset, but let’s not lose sight of the fact that the Niners play in an awful division with questionable pass defenses. If Josh Morgan breaks out like everyone thinks, Hill will be the beneficiary. Let’s also not forget that Frank Gore is an adept receiver as well. Hill, who is being passed over in 85% of fantasy leagues, is certainly worth a flyer.

RUNNING BACKS

I’ve had to scratch two players off of this list because their ADPs have skyrocketed in recent weeks: Ray Rice and Chris “Beanie” Wells. If you’re in a league with seasoned fantasy football veterans, you can pretty much forget about nabbing either player as a late round sleeper. That leaves us with:

Larry Johnson. At pick #52 overall, I think Johnson is an excellent #3 RB and a serviceable #2 in many formats. I have him rated above Addai, who will lose carries to Donald Brown, and Lynch, who will lose touches to Fred Jackson when he ISN’T suspended. I don’t expect LJ, the clear-cut top dog in the KC backfield, to come anywhere close to the kinds of seasons that once made him an elite fantasy RB, but as far as his career number of carries is concerned, he’s got a lot more tread left on the tires than most people realize. We’ve seen several renaissance seasons by RBs once written off as dead or insignificant, most recently Thomas Jones. Johnson has a lot of incentive to have a monster year this season, is likely to surpass the numbers that Jones (#37) will put up this season in a suddenly crowded NYJ backfield. You can have TJ; I’ll take LJ a round or two later.

Julius Jones. I don’t like “Orange” Julius much, but at pick #86, he represents value as a team’s #1 rushing option who’s still on the board at that point. Jones is one of those guys you like to have on your team for depth purposes, but you don’t want to have to start him. Remember what I said above about Hasselbeck, though…the Seahawks will be a better team this year, and Jones will likewise get several tasty intra-divisional matchups. You can do a lot worse in the 8th or 9th round.

Fred Jackson. In a Week 17 start against the Patriots last year, Jackson gained 137 yards on 27 carries in a losing cause. He’ll be the Bills’ starting RB the first three games of the season, and there’s reason to believe he’ll still see ample playing time after Marshawn Lynch returns from his suspension. Jackson actually gained more yards per carry than Lynch last year, and gained almost 2 yards more per reception, as well. With an ADP of #108, Jackson is being drafted after Willis Freaking McGahee, who’ll be the third option out of the backfield in Baltimore (if he’s lucky).

Ahmad Bradshaw. Think of the year Derrick Ward had last year. Now, think of what a guy who’s averaged over 6 yards a carry to date in his brief NFL career might do with the lion’s share of Ward’s carries. Let’s also remember that Brandon Jacobs hasn’t been the healthiest of fellows so far, so pencil Bradshaw in for a couple of starts as well. It’s worth noticing that Bradshaw caught almost half as many passes in the first preseason game as he did all of last year. This could very well signal an even more expanded role for Bradshaw, who’s ADP is currently #128. It’s hard to find better RB value this late in a draft.

Shonn Greene. It’s hard to believe that two bona fide sleeper RBs play in (er, near) the Big Apple, but Greene is somehow slipping by everyone. Perhaps it has something to do with playing the same position on the same team as the AFC’s leading rusher from a year ago. However, Thomas Jones has not endeared himself to the organization this year, and is rumored to be available via trade. The Jets believe they struck gold in Greene, at tough runner who should tote the rock inside the red zone often. Behind a very solid offensive line, Greene has immense upside should Jones find himself in a different uniform or on the trainer’s table.

WIDE RECEIVERS

Ted Ginn, Jr. At #108, Ginn is being taken after Devin Hester and just before Jeremy Maclin, two guys whom Ginn should outperform by leaps and bounds this year. Ginn is primed for a breakout season and is clearly the most talented receiving option in Miami, a team with a better offense than most people realize. Ginn, a third-year receiver who logged 56 catches last year, is an excellent high upside addition in Round 9 or 10.

Josh Morgan. At #148, the odds-on favorite to be the #1 wideout for the San Francisco 49ers is being taken, on average, just after a kicker (Neil Rackers). If I need to explain why this makes Morgan a great value pick, then you’re either a noob or Al Davis.

Chris Henry. The 52nd wide receiver to leave the fantasy green room this draft season, Henry’s ADP of 153 puts him right in front of K Nick Folk (#154). That’s right…a 6′ 4″ red zone target who was once relevant as a #3 WR now finds himself moving up the depth chart while he slides down fantasy draft boards. Henry is my odds-on favorite to play the role of Antonio Bryant this season. Don’t believe me? Well, let’s review: Tall? Check. Gifted? Check. Checkered past? Check. See? It all checks out.

Keenan Burton and Ronald Curry. With Donnie Avery hobbled by injury and unlikely to be up to speed in time for the start of the season, opportunity has presented itself to others to strut their stuff at the wideout position in St. Louis. Burton, a second year six footer from Kentucky, has an ADP of 290, which means he’s rarely drafted, if ever. Curry, an underrated 30 year old veteran who has caught 50 passes three times as a Raider, is being selected #293 overall. One of these guys will have a nice season, so it behooves you to take a flyer on at least one of them late in your draft.

TIGHT ENDS

John Carlson. At pick #103 overall, Carlson - by most accounts a star-in-the-making - represents good value at a position that’s deeper than most people think.

Visanthe Shiancoe. Yes, that’s spelled correctly…I double checked. Pronounce it at your own risk. With an ADP of #139, Shiancoe is the only player on the Vikings who’s stock rises significantly via the Favre signing. I still wouldn’t take him until the late rounds, though.

Brent Celek. The Eagles utilize the TE more than most teams, yet Celek - the clear #1 in Philadelphia - is only being drafted in 50.7% of mock drafts on MockDraftCentral.com. Celek (ADP: 172) played a big role in the Eagles’ playoff success last year, and the injury to rookie Cornelius Ingram only solidifies Celek’s role in the offense. I don’t advocate drafting any more TEs than necessary, but Celek is a terrific consolation prize if you wait until the late rounds to take a TE while filling out your roster with value in other positions.

Chris Baker. The 222nd player taken overall, Baker feasted on the Eagles in the first preseason tilt this year. Being a red zone target for Tom Brady can only help a player’s fantasy value. Don’t forget about the “Touchdown Maker” in the late rounds if you need a TE.

Marcedes Lewis. At #296, he’s being drafted in fewer than 2% of fantasy leagues. I expect the Jags to seek other options in the red zone if they want to keep MJD upright. For this among other reasons, Lewis is a prime candidate for a breakout season. If you’re looking for a TE flyer in a deep league, you can do much worse.

DSB

Mythology 201: Show WRs Some Love (Part 2)

By: Drew

If you read “Mythology 101: Show WRs Some Love,” you know how important it is to pay attention to the WR position during your draft. Fallible reasoning offered by those who neglect top pass catchers was debunked, allowing true illustration of just how valuable a solid WR corps truly is. If you haven’t read that particular blog already, go back and do so now. For those who’ve completed Mythology 101, you’re about to explore two other popular misconceptions which will serve as fodder for the second and final part of this series.

MYTH #4: It’s foolish to draft a #2 WR before the heart of the middle rounds because I can get a team’s #1 WR in the 8^th round or later.

Reality: I came across a post in the forums in recent weeks that reinforced this myth. It went something like this:

“I can definitely see Branch and Edwards performing just as well as [Randy] Moss and Colston.”

As I said at the time, I can just as easily see Branch losing the #1 WR job to DJ Hackett, and I can see Edwards throwing up goose eggs in the TD column most weeks thanks to a questionable QB situation. Consistency is key, and though Branch and Edwards offer upside, it is asking a lot to expect them to be consistent performers. I see them having as many poor games as good ones. One of the keys to fnatasy success is consistency, and in that vein, there is a real, tangible difference between the Deion Branches and Javon Walkers of the world.

MYTH #5: Most of the top 10 WRs from last year were not among the top 10 Wrs drafted in most leagues.

Reality: Ahhh, a telltale symptom of Marquescolstonitis…a disorder akin to PowerBall Mania that deludes otherwise sane fantasy owners into believing that they, too, can expect to strike #1 WR gold on the waiver wire. Here are the top Wide Receivers from last year, in order of actual fantasy production:

1. Marvin Harrison

2. Terrell Owens

3. Reggie Wayne

4. Chad Johnson

(5. Donald Driver)

6. Torry Holt

(7. Lee Evans)

8. Steve Smith

(9. Javon Walker)

10. Roy Williams

Those in parentheses were not consensus pre-season Top 10 wideouts last year. Only three of last year’s consensus top 10 Wrs fell out of the top 10 by season’s end, and two of them are back in my top 10 THIS season. Randy Moss, a freakish talent and the consensus 10^th WR this time last year, finished 59^th due to a perfect storm of unusual circumstances, the likes of which we’ve never seen before. He’s back in my top 10 this season. Larry Fitzgerald, a consensus top 5 WR last year, battled injuries last year, and he’s back in my top 10 this season because he’s a beast, plain and simple. Anquan Boldin, the odd man out in my top 10 WRs, is 11^th on my list. He started last season as a consensus Top 10 WR and finished 17^th due to an anomaly in the TDs scored column (he’s more likely to score twice as much this year than he is to repeat last year’s total of 4).

So, while it may seem like there’s a lot of turnover in the top echelon of wide receivers, there really isn’t. More importantly, there aren’t as many great ones as you might think. Once you address your RB position, grab as many of those top wideouts as you can!

By: drewseabass

We all know that fantasy football success begins with the RB position. However, it doesn’t end there. You need good balance in your starting lineup to taste the fruits of victory with regularity, and in most cases, teams that lack balance have weak wide receiver corps. Over the past month, however, I’ve heard fantasy players belittle the importance of drafting a solid WR corps…a steady stable anchored by a true stud at the position. Some are waiting until the 5^th, 6th, or even 7^th round to take their first WR, and many are grabbing non-Peyton QBs or even a TE in the first two or three rounds instead. Big mistake. Those who disagree will trot out a few tired, old myths. Allow me to debunk those for you, one at a time.

MYTH #1: There are 32 teams in the NFL, and therefore there are 32 guys who are the #1 WR on their teams.

Reality: Just because a guy is a #1 WR on his team doesn’t mean he’ll be a good #1 fantasy wideout. Remember, there are teams like San Diego, Kansas City, Cleveland, Baltimore, Atlanta, and San Francisco where the #1 receiver is not a WR…it’s a TE, and that doesn’t include Washington, whose leading receiver last year was Chris Cooley (57 receptions). Also, there are teams like Philadelphia and New Orleans who had running backs lead their teams in receptions. Also, let’s not forget that some teams’ passing games just plain stink (see “Vikings, Minnesota” and “Raiders, Oakland”). So as you can see, bona fide #1 wide receivers are hardly a dime a dozen. Which leads me to…

MYTH #2: Wide recievers are a dime a dozen, and there will always be WRs drafted in the middle to late rounds who turn into solid, every-week starters.

Reality: OK. so there may be truth in the latter half of that statement…but you can, in fact, say the same about ANY position. Last year’s mid and late round RB gems included Thomas Jones and Maurice Jones-Drew. Several sleeper QBs (Philip Rivers and Drew Brees for starters) were drafted similarly late, and Brees went on to have an MVP-caliber season. Lest we leave the TE position out in the cold, Kellen Winslow was taken on average in the 9^th or 10^th round due to injury concerns, yet went on to lead all tight ends in receptions (89) and finished in the top ten in the NFL (all positions) in the category while racking up just shy of 900 receiving yards. This year, he can once again be had around the 8^th or 9^th round, along with a host of other solid TE options. When Jeremy Shockey, Todd Heap, and Tony Gonzalez go off the board in the 5^th and 6^th rounds, don’t foolishly pass on a Donald Driver or Plaxico Burress because you don’t want to get left out of a TE run. The same applies to QB runs…don’t go crazy chasing a QB once Manning, Carson Palmer, Tom Brady, and Drew Brees are gone. If good-to-great WRs are the best value offered by the board, take them and do so happily.

MYTH #3: I’d rather take Antonio Gates in the 3^rd or 4^th round instead of a #1 WR because he’s so much better than every other TE.

Reality: Fantasy baseball players among us know that tight end is fantasy football’s answer to the catcher position: it’s nice to have a good one, but you never get as much production out of that position as you do the other offensive positions. With that in mind, the fact that Gates is the dominant player at his position doesn’t carry so much weight after all. OK, so you really like Antonio Gates. No, I mean REALLY like him. I get it. I like him, too…just not in the 3^rd round (or even the 4^th in most cases). Tony Gonzalez, Todd Heap, and up-and-comer Vernon Davis are guys you can count on to give you plenty of yards to go along with 5-6 TDs a year, and at least one of them will be available in the 6^th or 7th round. By comparison, the best of the wide receivers left that late will likely be your Braylon Edwardses or Deion Branches of the world. Not terrible options, mind you, but certainly not someone I’d like to trot out as my #1 (or even #2) WR if I could help it. Last year, Edwards scored just 6 TDs, and Branch notched only 4 scores. I’ve said before that Branch is overrated, and I think DJ Hackett is every bit as talented…but I see the football being spread around quite a bit in Seattle this season. In Edwards’ case, I like the kid a lot, but the QB situation in Cleveland didn’t get much better this year. Either it’s another season of a placeholder signal caller like Charlie Frye, or they’ll hand over the reins to rookie QB Brady Quinn. I’d rather leave the Tums in the medicine cabinet, take a stud WR in the 4th and a guy like Crumpler or Vernon Davis later, and rest easy while my team piles up more points than it would if I reached for a TE or QB in the 4th. But don’t just take MY word for it…let the numbers speak for themselves:

PROBABLE 2007 6th/7th ROUNDERS (2006 stats):

725 yds 4 tds Branch WR (disappointed while Hackett opened eyes)

884 yds 6 tds Edwards WR (tenuous QB situation limits his ceiling)

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805 yds 5 tds (average)

900 yds 5 tds Gonzalez TE (900+ yds in each of the last 4 seasons)

780 yds 8 tds Crumpler TE (granted, his numbers may fall off post-Vick…then again, maybe not. Vick is hardly a great passer)

623 yds 7 tds Shockey TE (always good for yards; last year showed us that he knows where the end zone is, too)

765 yds 6 tds Heap TE (quietly one of the best TEs in football, and McNair loves throwing to the TE)

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767 yds 6.5 tds (average)

PROBABLE 2007 3rd/4th ROUNDERS (2006 stats):

924 yds 9 tds Gates TE

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1188 yds 10 tds Holt WR

1366 yds 12 tds Harrison WR

1180 yds 13 tds Owens WR

1310 yds 9 tds Wayne WR

946 yds 6 tds Fitzgerald WR (missed 3 games with a hamstring, but finished strong with no ill effects)

1081 yds 9 tds Houshmanzadeh (better #s than Gates)

1203 yds 4 tds Boldin WR (compiled those numbers in an off-year)

1084 yds 8 tds Walker WR (last year was his 1st back from injury)

1310 yds 7 tds R Williams WR (could see lots of single coverage with the addition of Calvin Johnson)

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1185 yds 8.7 tds (average)

Differences in value between Rounds 3/4 and 6/7:

WRs – 380 yds, 3.7 TDs (average)

TEs – 157 yds, 2.5 TDs (average)

I’m not putting too much stock in last year’s numbers; I’m only using them to prove a simple point: Dare I say it, but it’s possible that the TE position is actually just as deep as the WR position, if not more so. You only start one of them, and many fantasy squads only carry one on their roster anyway. I’ve seen either LJ Smith, Ben Watson, and Jason Witten (all very solid fantasy TEs) stay on the board until the 10^th round or later in most of the mock drafts I’ve seen. Guys like Dallas Clark and Heath Miller (solid options with upside) are lasting even longer.

Moral of the story: You can get excellent TE value late, so don’t draft Gates if it’s going to cost you a top-tier WR.