The News - Ward busts out of Tampa

The Questions - Multiple Mojos

The Calls - Supreme’s Team

The News - Hip to be Sid…

The Questions - We got some!

The Calls - Franchise Leagues….

My first draft of the season was a little family league I decided to run so that my 8-year-old can cut his teeth on this thing. My sister and her boyfriend are in it (he’s a Bears fan for f*ck’s sake), my wife is in it. It’s as far from being a serious league as a league can get. Before the draft, my wife took a picture of all of us for a scrapbook page. Testosterone and estrogen were battling for space at this table, believe you me! Anyway, that’s how “not serious” this deal was. Still, you have certain expectations and assumptions about how things are going to go. Wrong again, asshat! First pick…Peyton Manning! Holy Christ, let me check the calendar…is it 2006? My son Rob picks next, and he takes CJ (Rob is 12 and a grizzled vet of this thing we call fantasy football). My younger son James is next and grabs Rodgers (yeah, I know. But, it was his first ever pick, and I didn’t think that his young mind would grasp the nuances of the Magic Formula. I let it go). After that, things looked almost normal…a ton of RBs go off the board, some questionable reaches, some WRs go, etc., just like a real draft. Then James goes Philly D in the 5th (I really, really need to talk to this boy). Then my wife started drafting players based solely on how interesting their names are. She ended up with Ochocinco, Brent Celek, Eli, Housh (”oh, I gotta take WhoseYourMamma!”), Shiancoe (yes, I told the story), and Aromashodu. My sister said a name that I’d never heard of…somebody named Logan Something. I have no idea what list she was looking at, but it wasn’t mine.

It’s only a 6-team league, so every team is at least okay. Winner gets $4, second gets $2. Sweet!

My team:

QB Philip Rivers
Kevin Kolb

RB Adrian Peterson
Steven Jackson
DeAngelo Williams
Shonn Green
Ahmad Bradshaw
CJ Spiller

WR Randy Moss
Miles Austin
Calvin Johnson
Roddy White
Michael Crabtree

TE Antonio Gates
Jermaine Gresham

K Gostkowski

DEF Jets

———

Tonight was my first “real” draft. Some vets, some novices, but a decent chunk of change on the line. Well, enough to get a nice lunch and a few beers…and enough to keep a guy’s interest. Only one person is on autodraft (the draft conflicted with some activity or other called “storytime”…something to do with kids, I think). The league is on Yahoo! and some of you may know that there are big numbers that count down 3 - 2 - 1 to enter the draft.
3 … I could feel the season beginning. My first real online draft of the year. No more mocks!
2 … The preseason was f*cking over! It was time to get serious!
1 … The time for bullsh*t had passed, and crunch time had begun! I had a semi!

And then the person with the first pick selects Andre Johnson. She’s a Texans fan, you see. F*ck me.

My team:

QB Joe Flacco
Ben Roethlisberger

RB Frank Gore
DeAngelo Williams
Ahmad Bradshaw
Beanie Wells
Justin Forsett
Toby Gerhart

WR Roddy White
Anquan Boldin
Mike Wallace
Devin Aromashodu
Eddie Royal
Dexter McCluster

TE Brent Celek

K David Buelher

DEF Cincinatti

Oh well, I have 6 more drafts in the next two weeks, but before then, I KNOW I can get some mock drafts in…against a computer, I hope.

The News - Not Brett Favre

The Questions - Hot Chick Bonanza

The Calls - Longest. Call. Ever.

The News - R-R-R-Revis and the Jets…

The Questions - 2 Girls 1 Keeper…

The Calls - Supreme and Floyd check in…

The News - Favre’s Long Grey Snake!

The Calls - Supreme is confident about his cowboys.

The Questions - Advanced Magic Formula.

The News - Haynesworth is a big fat fatty…

The Questions - Ced Benson vs. Jamaal Charles

The Calls - We help Floyd make some more money

The News - Nothing….

The NFC - SF division champs?

The Questions - Floyd is back bitches!

The News - Doc in San Diego has a REALLY bad back… Allegedly

The AFC - Quick Preview

The Questions - Finders Keepers!

Here is my magazine stack of mediocrity:

• Pro Football Weekly and Yahoo! Sports Fantasy Football Guide 2010
• Fantasy League Football
• Sporting News Fantasy Football
• NFL.com Fantasy Football 2010 Preview
• Fox Sports Fantasy Football (with scout.com)
• ESPN Fantasy Football 2010
• Lindy’s Sports Fantasy Football 2010

Most of these mags are filled with dreck, but the one exception is Lindy’s. While I questioned some of the rankings (no shock), I really enjoyed the article about how RBs are STILL the key to winning in Fantasy Football. The mock draft didn’t feature a QB pick until 2:10! If you are itching for a beach read, find this mag, and use the others for tp.

There are two QBs leading the way this year in the mags: Drew Brees and Aaron Rodgers. Turns out that AR had a great second half last year, and that helps him top more than a couple lists. Not mine. I’ll take some proven production, thank you…I’ll take Drew Brees as my top guy.

1. Drew Brees
2. Peyton Manning
3. Aaron Rodgers
4. Philip Rivers
5. Matt Schaub
6. Tom Brady
7. Matt Ryan
8. Tony Romo
9. Brett Favre
10. Joe Flacco
11. Kevin Kolb
12. Jay Cutler
13. Donovan McNabb
14. Eli Manning
15. Carson Palmer

There is no way in hell that CJ posts numbers like that again. So there is no way that I can make him my top guy. Again…proven consistency gets my nod for the top spot.

1. Adrian Peterson
2. Chris Johnson
3. MJD
4. Ray Rice
5. Michael Turner
6. Rashard Mendenhall
7. Cedric Benson
8. Steven Jackson
9. Frank Gore
10. DeAngelo Williams
11. Shonn Greene
12. Pierre Thomas
13. Ryan Grant
14. Jamaal Charles
15. Beanie Wells

Since Andre Johnson is ranked as the top WR in EVERY mag, I wanted to find a reason to push him to second. Couldn’t. He has the QB, he has the consistency, he has the intangibles.

1. Andre Johnson
2. Larry Fitzgerald
3. Roddy White
4. Randy Moss
5. Reggie Wayne
6. Miles Austin
7. Vincent Jackson
8. Calvin Johnson
9. Brandon Marshall
10. DeSean Jackson
11. Sidney Rice
12. Greg Jennings
13. Steve Smith (NYG)
14. Marques Colston
15. Michael Crabtree

Last year, Dallas Clark was ranked somewhere near the bottom of the top 10 for TEs. I had no idea why. He was a huge target in the top pass offense in the league…so I ranked him #1. All he did was have a record-breaking year: He is the only TE to catch 100 balls for 1000+ yds and have 10 TDs. So, of course, he’s ranked #1 this year on every list so far. But not mine.

1. Vernon Davis
2. Dallas Clark
3. Antonio Gates
4. Brent Celek
5. Jermichael Finley
6. Tony Gonzalez
7. Jason Witten
8. Zack Miller
9. Owen Daniels
10. Chris Cooley

All of these lists are obviously incomplete, and are subject to constant change. I will discuss my reasoning for some of the seemingly outlandish choices during our pre-season shows (the first of which will be July 15).

I look forward to your comments.

The News - Antonio Pierce is not Ray Lewis

The Game - Sean Payton has industrial sized trouser pebbles!

The Questions - Floyd calls in to gloat!

The News - Getting a Contract Extension is a Brees?
The Game - We both pick the Colts
The Questions - Top 10 WRs of all time.

The News - Warner to hang it up?

The Games - 5 turnovers = overtime?

The Questions - Floyd is of the ledge, window still open.

The News - Everyone is in the Pro Bowl.

The Games - Floyd goes opposite!

The Questions - We pick our top 10 QBs of all time.

News Flash - Favre may retire at seasons end.

The Games - We suck… bet against us!

The Questions - Talkin’ Floyd off the ledge.

The News - Holmgren Gets His Mangina On!

The Games - Lyle Picks The Cowboys!

The Questions - Mojo Makes A Case For Ohio… We Still Think It Sucks!

I wasn’t able to put these out every week like I did last year, I’ve just been way too busy with family stuff to put the time into it. So I decided to do a “What I Learned” end of the season edition.

Arizona Cardinals: Larry Fitzgerald was able to debunk the Madden curse, right up until the end of the season when we all needed him most, thank god he was still able to score TDs for us. Beanie Wells could be a very good player, he just might have to go Tanya Harding on Tim Hightower to get the chance to show it. I’ll be very interested to see where Boldin ends up next season, I don’t see any way that they can keep him under is current pathetic contract and expect him to not throw another fit about it. Either pay the guy or trade him already.

Atlanta Falcons: Looks like Michael Turner wasn’t able to avoid the curse of 370 after all. I think he’ll be better next year, but he certainly won’t be a first rounder next draft. People in shallow keeper leagues will have a tough choice with him as well. Roddy White’s end of the year numbers will look impressive, but he has the feel of Chad Johnson circa the 2006 and 2007 seasons.

Baltimore Ravens: Troy Smith asked to be traded, that’s funny right there. Any bets he lands in Oakland? I, like many others, will be praying that Willis McGahee is gone next year. Ray Rice was incredible this year, but if McGahee is gone he could put up Chris Johnson type numbers. Will Derrick Mason stick around for another year? After the season he’s had I think he just might. If they get Flacco another option (see Boldin, Anquan above) to pair with Mason he could be a top 8 QB next year.

Buffalo Bills: Hopefully whoever they get to coach their team makes it a point to install Fred Jackson as the starter. Firstly he’s a more explosive player, and secondly he doesn’t have the jacked-up grill that Lynch has. Sorry Bills fans, but I think that your team is going to struggle for a while. No QB + no WRs = FAIL. At least their defensive secondary has a lot of promise. Where will Terrell Owens go from here? My money is on the Bears making a run at him.

Carolina Panthers: Goodbye Jake Delhomme, you made picking a weekly defense less of a gamble. I think he just threw another pick. The Williams/Stewart backfield will be back in full swing next year. They’ll get their o-line healthy and they should get an easier schedule than this year.

Chicago Bears: Jay Cutler is the Eeyore of quarterbacks. Seriously. Every time I see this guy on TV he looks like someone just told him that Santa Claus isn’t real. Maybe he’ll be better next year after they draft some help. What’s that? They gave up virtually ALL of their draft picks to get him? Oops. Matt Forte is definitely tops on my sh!t list. Last year I traded Chis Johnson for you in my keeper league, you slow, plodding bastard!!!!! Thank God I was able to unload you for Steven Jackson in week 6.

Cincinnati Bengals: They swept the AFC North. Really? Let that sink in people. It’s one thing to beat the Browns twice, but it’s an entirely different thing to beat the Steelers and Ravens twice each. As a Steeler fan I have to tip my hat to you. Cedric Benson may have revived his career with the Bengals, but after the interviews I’ve seen him give recently it’s clear that being cut and out of work for a time didn’t teach him humility, he’s just as arrogant as ever.

Cleveland Browns: Move along people, nothing to see here. Ok, maybe Jerome Harrison is worth keeping an eye on, but only if he can keep getting 30+ carries a game next year.

dallas cowboys: It’s spelled lower case on purpose folks. My hatred of the cowboys grew exponentially after the duo of Miles Austin and Jason Witten nearly erased my 45 point lead in my championship game. Now that I’ve gotten that out of my system, there’s no denying that Miles Austin deserves to be considered in the top 10-12 WRs next year. Any of you that were fortunate enough to be in the bottom of your league standings when he blew up really landed a gem off the wire. There’s also no denying that Roy Williams is nothing more than a WR5 next year.

Denver Broncos: Can someone please explain to me why Josh McDaniels hates Eddie Royal so badly? Royal’s second year has made Michael Clayton’s second year look like a success.

Detroit Lions: Their unofficial team motto, “We’ll Get ‘Em Next Year”!!! No, they won’t. Easily one of the worst defenses to ever take the field. What are the odds of them drafting another WR with their first pick? No, just kidding, they’ll probably take a RB.

Green Bay Packers: Aaron Rodgers is a tough SOB. It’s been painful watching him get crushed all year. It was like he and Ben Roethlisberger had a bet over who could get sacked more. I don’t know about your league’s scoring but Rodgers was the top QB in my league. It’s scary to think what he will do if they improve their o-line.

Houston Texans: Did Matt Schaub really play every game this year? That’s a hell of an achievement right there. I wonder who they’ll have at RB next year? I don’t think it will be Slaton, his nerve damage issue sounded pretty serious.

Indianapolis Colts: BOO!!!! BOO!!! Yes that’s me jumping on the bandwagon to boo the coaches for pulling the starters and letting the Jets win and throwing the whole damn AFC playoff picture out of whack. Looks like all the talk of Joseph Addai’s downfall were a bit premature. The guy played really well this year. Maybe he’s just one of those players that needs the threat of losing his starting job in order to play at a high level. Anthony Gonzalez, welcome back to the bench. Get comfy, because Garcon and Collie have already staked their claims.

Jacksonville Jaguars: Goodbye Jack Del Rio, hello Bill Cower? Maybe, but the threat of a lockout in 2011 is making teams a lot more cautious (e.g. John Fox, Carolina). I was right to believe that Maurice Jones-Drew would outperform Adrian Peterson this year. Even though he failed us a little toward the end of the season, I was happy to have him on my roster.

Kansas City Chiefs: Jamaal Charles looks like the real deal folks. I’d be thrilled to have him as my RB2 next year. Any bets on Dwayne Bowe showing up out of shape again next year? I won’t be drafting him as anything more than a WR3 on draft day.

Miami Dolphins: Ted Ginn Jr. is the Darius Heyward-Bey of his draft class, a fast guy that was drafted too high and can’t play the WR position very well. I like what I’m seeing from Chad Henne though, the kid isn’t afraid to chuck the ball.

Minnesota Vikings: Maybe they can get Tiki Barber to work on ball security with Adrian Peterson in the off-season. I’m putting the over/under at 4 months for the Brett Favre stay or go decision. If/when Favre leaves it will be a shame to see Percy Harvin and Sydney Rice wasting their talent with Tarvaris Jackson.

New England Patriots: Anything less than 10 catches is a down day for Wes Welker. Funny how everyone in fantasyland knew that Randy Moss is lazy when he knows he isn’t getting the ball, but the main stream media just barely found out in week 14.

New Orleans Saints: Can you imagine what Drew Brees would be able to do with a pair of WRs like Fitzgerald and Boldin? No offense to Colston and company, but THAT would be something special to watch.

New York Giants: In other news that the main stream media is just figuring out, Eli Manning isn’t very good in the 2nd half of the season. It’s one of the few things you can count on in football. That said, he’s gonna put up a bunch of points the first half of next season, those WRs he has are pretty damn good.

New York Jets: It’s funny how exited everyone got when Braylon Edwards arrived. It was like everyone forgot that there was a rookie QB there, and Braylon’s opposable thumbs only function 50% of the time. Next year will be Shonn Greene time, there’s just no way Thomas Jones can do it again. Is there?

Oakland Raiders: Hey Al Davis, remember that time you drafted Darius Heyward-Bay over Michael Crabtree, Percy Harvin, and Jeremy Maclin? Good times man, good times. Seriously though, they don’t have a shot at being good until Al Davis is out of the picture. There’s no way that Tom Cable WANTED to stick with JaMarcus Awful as long as he did, you just know that was Al Davis calling that shot.

Philadelphia Eagles: Maybe the talk of Donovan McNabb being done was a little premature. But then again, Kevin Kolb looked awfully good while McNabb was out. Just sayin’.

Pittsburgh Steelers: Santonio Holmes is the Anti-Eli Manning, he can only produce in the second half of the season. Mike Wallace is gonna be special, but not until Hines Ward retires. On a side note, if anyone ever makes a movie about Ben Roethlisberger I hope they get Will Ferrell to play him. Every time I see a close up of Ben with his helmet on it reminds me of Will Ferrell in Talladega Nights.

St. Louis Rams: Steven Jackson is good, now move along.

San Diego Chargers: Thanks for all those great years Mr. Tomlinson, but it’s time to step aside. He might still be able to be effective, but needs to accept a reduced role. Keep an eye on where Malcom Floyd ends up next season, the kid has big time skills.

San Francisco 49ers: I really like what they’re doing here. Solid defense and an emerging offense. Hopefully Alex Smith doesn’t regress again. Imagine how good Crabtree could have been if he hadn’t acted like such a tool with his contract holdout.

Seattle Seahawks: They sure are lucky the Rams are there to keep them out of last place in their division. Justin Forsett could be a really good RB for them, but for some reason teams refuse to give up on Julius Jones.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers: As bad as they are I really like watching Josh Freeman play, the kid brings some excitement to the game. Other than that, I’m not really sure what else to say here.

Tennessee Titans: Who knew Vince Young could still play football? Not me that’s for sure. It’s well documented that I’m the doofus that traded Chris Johnson for Matt Forte in my keeper league last year, and I’m pretty sure that trade is the reason for his huge success this year. I hate myself for that trade more and more with every game.

Washington Redskins: Seriously, why would anyone want to coach there? I mean, you’re working for an owner that trades all his draft picks away for FAs every year, so it’s not like you can rebuild through the draft. And it’s also an owner that likes to micro manage his coaches (see Davis, Al above).

Well, that’s all I got folks. I hope you enjoyed reading it. If you were fortunate enough to win a championship this year (like me!) then I congratulate you. And if not, then better luck next year. Remember, no amount of planning can make up for the fact that winning in our little game has as much to do with luck as anything else. As evidence of this there is a guy in my league that has Adrian Peterson, Wes Welker, Randy Moss, Brandon Marshall, and Donovan McNabb. Luckily he was eliminated in the semi-final round (week 15) when his team fell apart so I didn’t have to face him in the championship.

QUARTERBACKS

Ben Roethlisberger. On average, he’s being taken a full two rounds after Matt Ryan and Jay Cutler, though he’s more than capable of outproducing either (if not both) of them. His MockDraftCentral.com ADP is #93, which is the equivalent of the late 8th round pick in a 12 team league (or early 10th in a 10 teamer). I’ll take some of that, please.

Matt Hasselbeck. With a real, actual WR (T.J. Houshmanzadeh), it’s hard to not like Hasselbeck as a #2 QB this year. Especially at #107 overall. Are you kidding?

Trent Edwards. I’ve seen people claim that they’d rather have Brett Favre. Blech. Edwards, at pick #138, and with Terrell Owens and Lee Evans to throw to, will outperform Favre by leaps and bounds. T.O. always seems to perform well in his first year in a new city, and the Bills’ rushing attack is good enough to keep defenses honest. It all adds up to a big year for Edwards. Well worth the late round flyer.

Jason Campbell. He’s being written off by most folks, but at pick #182, I love him as a QB#3 with upside to be much better. He’s got some weapons to work with. He’ll face the Eagles and Giants twice, but he’ll benefit from a last place schedule in non-divisional games.

Shaun Hill. It skeeves me that Matthew Berry is now trumpeting him as a sleeper, but he’s right on this one. He’s the 30th QB taken overall, and the Niners’ new OC has a running mindset, but let’s not lose sight of the fact that the Niners play in an awful division with questionable pass defenses. If Josh Morgan breaks out like everyone thinks, Hill will be the beneficiary. Let’s also not forget that Frank Gore is an adept receiver as well. Hill, who is being passed over in 85% of fantasy leagues, is certainly worth a flyer.

RUNNING BACKS

I’ve had to scratch two players off of this list because their ADPs have skyrocketed in recent weeks: Ray Rice and Chris “Beanie” Wells. If you’re in a league with seasoned fantasy football veterans, you can pretty much forget about nabbing either player as a late round sleeper. That leaves us with:

Larry Johnson. At pick #52 overall, I think Johnson is an excellent #3 RB and a serviceable #2 in many formats. I have him rated above Addai, who will lose carries to Donald Brown, and Lynch, who will lose touches to Fred Jackson when he ISN’T suspended. I don’t expect LJ, the clear-cut top dog in the KC backfield, to come anywhere close to the kinds of seasons that once made him an elite fantasy RB, but as far as his career number of carries is concerned, he’s got a lot more tread left on the tires than most people realize. We’ve seen several renaissance seasons by RBs once written off as dead or insignificant, most recently Thomas Jones. Johnson has a lot of incentive to have a monster year this season, is likely to surpass the numbers that Jones (#37) will put up this season in a suddenly crowded NYJ backfield. You can have TJ; I’ll take LJ a round or two later.

Julius Jones. I don’t like “Orange” Julius much, but at pick #86, he represents value as a team’s #1 rushing option who’s still on the board at that point. Jones is one of those guys you like to have on your team for depth purposes, but you don’t want to have to start him. Remember what I said above about Hasselbeck, though…the Seahawks will be a better team this year, and Jones will likewise get several tasty intra-divisional matchups. You can do a lot worse in the 8th or 9th round.

Fred Jackson. In a Week 17 start against the Patriots last year, Jackson gained 137 yards on 27 carries in a losing cause. He’ll be the Bills’ starting RB the first three games of the season, and there’s reason to believe he’ll still see ample playing time after Marshawn Lynch returns from his suspension. Jackson actually gained more yards per carry than Lynch last year, and gained almost 2 yards more per reception, as well. With an ADP of #108, Jackson is being drafted after Willis Freaking McGahee, who’ll be the third option out of the backfield in Baltimore (if he’s lucky).

Ahmad Bradshaw. Think of the year Derrick Ward had last year. Now, think of what a guy who’s averaged over 6 yards a carry to date in his brief NFL career might do with the lion’s share of Ward’s carries. Let’s also remember that Brandon Jacobs hasn’t been the healthiest of fellows so far, so pencil Bradshaw in for a couple of starts as well. It’s worth noticing that Bradshaw caught almost half as many passes in the first preseason game as he did all of last year. This could very well signal an even more expanded role for Bradshaw, who’s ADP is currently #128. It’s hard to find better RB value this late in a draft.

Shonn Greene. It’s hard to believe that two bona fide sleeper RBs play in (er, near) the Big Apple, but Greene is somehow slipping by everyone. Perhaps it has something to do with playing the same position on the same team as the AFC’s leading rusher from a year ago. However, Thomas Jones has not endeared himself to the organization this year, and is rumored to be available via trade. The Jets believe they struck gold in Greene, at tough runner who should tote the rock inside the red zone often. Behind a very solid offensive line, Greene has immense upside should Jones find himself in a different uniform or on the trainer’s table.

WIDE RECEIVERS

Ted Ginn, Jr. At #108, Ginn is being taken after Devin Hester and just before Jeremy Maclin, two guys whom Ginn should outperform by leaps and bounds this year. Ginn is primed for a breakout season and is clearly the most talented receiving option in Miami, a team with a better offense than most people realize. Ginn, a third-year receiver who logged 56 catches last year, is an excellent high upside addition in Round 9 or 10.

Josh Morgan. At #148, the odds-on favorite to be the #1 wideout for the San Francisco 49ers is being taken, on average, just after a kicker (Neil Rackers). If I need to explain why this makes Morgan a great value pick, then you’re either a noob or Al Davis.

Chris Henry. The 52nd wide receiver to leave the fantasy green room this draft season, Henry’s ADP of 153 puts him right in front of K Nick Folk (#154). That’s right…a 6′ 4″ red zone target who was once relevant as a #3 WR now finds himself moving up the depth chart while he slides down fantasy draft boards. Henry is my odds-on favorite to play the role of Antonio Bryant this season. Don’t believe me? Well, let’s review: Tall? Check. Gifted? Check. Checkered past? Check. See? It all checks out.

Keenan Burton and Ronald Curry. With Donnie Avery hobbled by injury and unlikely to be up to speed in time for the start of the season, opportunity has presented itself to others to strut their stuff at the wideout position in St. Louis. Burton, a second year six footer from Kentucky, has an ADP of 290, which means he’s rarely drafted, if ever. Curry, an underrated 30 year old veteran who has caught 50 passes three times as a Raider, is being selected #293 overall. One of these guys will have a nice season, so it behooves you to take a flyer on at least one of them late in your draft.

TIGHT ENDS

John Carlson. At pick #103 overall, Carlson - by most accounts a star-in-the-making - represents good value at a position that’s deeper than most people think.

Visanthe Shiancoe. Yes, that’s spelled correctly…I double checked. Pronounce it at your own risk. With an ADP of #139, Shiancoe is the only player on the Vikings who’s stock rises significantly via the Favre signing. I still wouldn’t take him until the late rounds, though.

Brent Celek. The Eagles utilize the TE more than most teams, yet Celek - the clear #1 in Philadelphia - is only being drafted in 50.7% of mock drafts on MockDraftCentral.com. Celek (ADP: 172) played a big role in the Eagles’ playoff success last year, and the injury to rookie Cornelius Ingram only solidifies Celek’s role in the offense. I don’t advocate drafting any more TEs than necessary, but Celek is a terrific consolation prize if you wait until the late rounds to take a TE while filling out your roster with value in other positions.

Chris Baker. The 222nd player taken overall, Baker feasted on the Eagles in the first preseason tilt this year. Being a red zone target for Tom Brady can only help a player’s fantasy value. Don’t forget about the “Touchdown Maker” in the late rounds if you need a TE.

Marcedes Lewis. At #296, he’s being drafted in fewer than 2% of fantasy leagues. I expect the Jags to seek other options in the red zone if they want to keep MJD upright. For this among other reasons, Lewis is a prime candidate for a breakout season. If you’re looking for a TE flyer in a deep league, you can do much worse.

DSB

WIDE-EYED AND AMPED “SLEEPERS”

QB - Matt Schaub. He’s a great value proposition, but only if he’s taken in the right spot. Many people are now taking him in the same rounds as guys like Romo and McNabb. At that point, he no longer represents value.

RB - Pierre Thomas. Yes, he’s got lots of upside, but that doesn’t make him worthy of a 2nd (or even an early 3rd) round pick…especially in PPR leagues. I’ve seen Thomas go right after (or even before) the likes of Clinton Portis and Brandon Jacobs, which is a mistake. There is better value on the board at that point. I’d prefer to draft Pierre in a different tier with the likes of Ronnie Brown, Ryan Grant, and Kevin Smith.

WR - Donnie Avery. At one point, he was being taken right alongside more proven players like Lee Evans, Santana Moss and Laverneus Coles by owners desperate to grab a WR during a position run. Then again, now that he’s hurting, you can expect his stock to fall off enough to the point where he once again represents value. Even so, I’m not sure I’d buy.

TE - Greg Olsen. I’ve seen him go before Tony Gonzalez, which shocks me beyond words. I like Olsen, but I’m not going to draft him early for the simple fact that he’s a TE. IF you have 3 solid RBs…AND a good QB…and at least 2 very good WRs…THEN it’s time to start thinking TE. However, Olsen probably won’t be there…which is good for you because it means you got value at other, more important positions.

In my next update, I’ll give you five TRUE sleepers for 2009…at each position. Except kickers. Who cares about them, anyway?

DSB

Overvalued:
Let someone else draft these guys.

Larry Fitzgerald WR, ARI (ADP-1.07): Anquan Boldin being in camp could spell lesser numbers for Fitz. When the two played during the regular season last year, Boldin caught 13 more passes and scored nearly twice as many TDs. Couple this with the fact that the Cardinals will likely pass less often this season (they threw the ball more last year than any other team, their receivers caught more passes than any team since 1995, and they drafted a bruising RB with their #1 pick), and it’s hard to see him putting up the dominating numbers of late 2008. Still, I’m not pushing Fitz’s value down too much, but drafting him #1 at WR seems too steep considering similar value might be found a round later.

Michael Turner RB, ATL (ADP-1.04): Turner is no doubt one of the best backs in the league, but there are a few factors suggesting he is overvalued in most leagues. He carried the ball a league high 376 times last year. Even coach Mike Smith said “We know he can’t sustain 370 carries over a number of years, we have to reduce the load we put on him last year”. He’s also not much of a pass catcher. Turner had only 6 catches for 41 yards last season. Sounds to me like Jerious Norwood could see more playing time as relief and play 90% of passing downs.

Tony Romo QB, DAL (ADP-5.05): Only Jon Kitna has turned the ball over more in the last 2 years and he just lost one of his best weapons. I don’t see Romo being anywhere near the top 10 for QBs this season.

Lee Evans WR, BUF (ADP-6.09): This might seem obvious given the addition of Terrell Owens, and Evans’ lack luster performance the past few years. But, I think even the late 6th round is too much to pay for Mr. Evans. Only one time in the last eight years has a WR playing on the other side of Owens totaled more than 800 yards, none have scored more than 7 TDs.

Undervalued:
These unsung heroes could be the key to your draft.

Pierre Thomas RB, NO (ADP-3.11): Maybe not in a PPR, but in a standard scoring league, Thomas should be selected before Reggie Bush (ADP-2.09). Thomas is bigger, more physical back, who will likely steal most of the goal-line carries. Add this to the fact that Bush’s knee isn’t 100% and has been a bit injury prone, and it’s an easy call to move Thomas ahead of him on my board.

Jamaal Charles RB, KC (ADP-12.09): While Larry Johnson has the starting gig locked down, he has had some injury and off the field problems lately. Charles is younger, much faster, and a far better receiver. It’s likely he will see significant playing time, even if Johnson is healthy. A late round flier on him could pay dividends if LJ continues his slide.

Domenik Hixon WR, NYG (ADP-11.11): Steve Smith is more of a slot receiver and 1st round selection Hakeem Nicks will need time to develop. That makes Hixon the #1 guy in New York by default. While I don’t expect to see Plaxico-type numbers from him. He did average 4 catches for 55 yards with 2 TDs when Plax was out last year.

Demetrius Williams WR, BAL (ADP-13.01): Sure he’s a #3 and he had an Achilles surgery that sidelined him for most of last season, but he’s behind Mark Clayton and the ageless Derrick Mason and he’s bigger and faster than both of those guys. He’s also added 5 pounds of muscle and seems serious about making a run at a starting gig.

Sleepers:
These guys are going mostly undrafted. They may be worth a late flier.

Jeff Garcia QB, OAK (ADP-N/A): Oakland may be committed to playing JaMarcus Russell for the rest of his life based on his salary, but if he does end up working his way to the bench, Garcia could be a more than serviceable option at QB. Oakland has one of the youngest offenses in the league and they may have the fastest pair of WRs in the NFL (Darrius Heyward Bay and Johnnie Lee Higgins).

Daunte Culpepper QB, DET (ADP-N/A): I know, 2004 called and they want their QB back (insert “Prices Right” fail here). Consider the fact that they have one of the best WRs in the NFL. Also consider that the Lions have added some upgraded receiving options with Maurice Morris, Brandon Pettigrew, Bryant Johnson, and Dennis Northcutt. Plus, Culpepper is in much better shape coming into camp and Matthew Stafford probably won’t see any action until late in the year. As far as fliers go, I don’t know if they get any better than this.

Chris Brown RB, HOU (ADP-N/A): Ryan Moats, rookies Arian Foster and Jeremiah Johnson, and Chris Brown are all competing to back up Steve Slaton. Brown has cracked 1,000 yards in a single season and was a staple of the Tennessee backfield until multiple injuries landed him on the IR. He’s clearly ahead of the pack for this position and there is a good chance he’ll see a lot of time around the goal-line. Slaton scored on only 4 of 21 carries inside the 5-yard line last year, worst amongst RBs.

Brent Celek TE, PHI (ADP-N/A): Celek showed flashes of brilliance last season, and has now locked up the starting gig in Philadelphia’s pass happy offense. That alone is enough to justify a late round selection.

Dark Horse Sleepers:
You may have never heard of these guys. Watch the waiver wire or spend a very late pick on one of these guys to stick at the end of your bench.

Earl Bennett WR, CHI: Someone has to catch the ball in Chicago. Devon Hester and Greg Olson should account for most of the production, but don’t rule out Bennett who caught more than 75 passes three years in a row at Vanderbilt, one of those seasons with Jay Cutler as his QB.

James Davis RB, CLE: Jamal Lewis will be 30 before opening day, he’s had multiple surgeries on his knees, and he averaged just 3.6 a carry last year. Davis, their 6th round selection, looks to be the #2 who might see increased playing time if Lewis continues to struggle.

Travis Beckum TE, NYG: He was college football’s most productive TE until he missed all of last season with injuries. The Giants liked him enough to spend an early 3rd round pick on him, and the lack of pass catchers will certainly open up opportunities on this team.

Rashad Jennings RB, JAX: Maurice Jones-Drew isn’t built to carry the ball 350+ times in a season. The Jaguars are going to need to spell him at some point. This 230 pound bruiser they selected in the 7th round is a likely candidate for short-yardage and goal line situations.

DeAngelo Williams. Could he go first overall next season? Then there’s Derrick Ward. Will he be next season’s Michael Turner when he leaves the Giants?

The Eagles played the Redskins, other than that there wasn’t much to see here.

I think that getting benched has really helped motivate Tarvaris Jackson … the guy actually looks like an NFL QB now. Plus he matched Adrian Peterson yard for yard in the running game!

Brett Favre, you really need to hang ‘em up old friend.

Marshawn Lynch left the game after aggravating his shoulder, and Fred Jackson went on to have a great day. Remember when Emmitt Smith jacked up his shoulder years ago and still finished the game? Maybe you could learn something from that Mr. Lynch, and this is coming from a guy that thinks Smith isn’t even in the top 10 all time RBs.

Houston @ Oakland, there are a lot of people from this game that I’m hating today. Schaub, Andre Johnson, and Steve Slaton, you are all dead to me today. I’m sure I’ll recover in time for the draft next season, but you all cut me deep. Real deep.

Raise your hand if you started LaMont Jordan this weekend. Yea, I didn’t think so. Now raise your hand if you benched Matt Cassell because of the Blizzard (raises hand, sheds a tear).

Gosder Cherilus, I have an extra special hatred for you. Calvin Johnson had a TD taken away because you are so incompetent that you can’t even line up where you are supposed to. I’ll be pulling for two things to happen next week. Drew Brees to break Marino’s record, and the Lions to lose their last game.

Chad Pennington, you’d better go off against the Jets next week. All season long you’ve been proving that they made a mistake in signing Favre and releasing you, it’s your time to shine. Raise your hand if you benched Thigpen because they were reporting that the wind chill was going to be like -20 (raises hand, sheds another tear).

Did you ever think that you’d see the Chargers throw up 41 points and Tomlinson wouldn’t have at least ONE score? Yea, me neither. Ok, I’ll say it, Antonio Bryant looks like he’s for real, but it will be really hard for me to draft him next season. Vincent Jackson on the other hand will be easy for me to draft. Raise your hand if you benched Phillip Rivers because he was facing the “staunch” Bucs defense (raises hand, gets a tissue).

Anyone think that the Rams will be able to turn things around next season? Me either. It’s going to be hard for me to use a keeper pick on Steven Jackson next season. He’s always hurt, and I have a lot of great options.

In other news of things that didn’t go my way this weekend, my Steelers got thumped by the Titans. That’s all I’ve got to say about that.

Cedric Benson ran for 171 yards? Really? I didn’t think that he was capable of doing that in three games let alone one. Other than Benson there really wasn’t much to see here.

Ok, this week it wasn’t so much what I learned as who I learned to hate. That list includes Matt Schaub, Andre Johnson, Marshawn Lynch, Anquan Boldin, Gosder Cherilus, the Jets defense, Steven Jackson for a year of frustration, and most of all … myself for benching so many players that went off this weekend. I hope all of you fared better than I did. Good luck to those of you foolish enough to be playing for a championship next weekend.

I know that the Broncos defense has been better of late, but how the hell did they limit the duo of Williams/Stewart to less than 100 yards apiece?

The Pats proved just how feeble the Raiders are by having 5 (five) different players score TDs on offense. They even threw in a kick return TD just to make sure they left no doubt.

I knew that I should have started Hines Ward. Every year I’ve had him on my team I’ve won the championship, and I had a feeling that he was going to have a good game, but I didn’t have the guts to start him. The Steelers need to get their running game going or they are going to have a hard time in the playoffs.

The Vikings “staunch” pass defense shut down the Cardinals, while Uber stud QB Tavaris Jackson dropped 4 TDs on the Cards defense. What did I just say?

Remember when a Sand Diego/Kansas City game meant watching two elite RBs duke it out? LT really doesn’t look like LT. I don’t know what it is, but he may never be a top 5 RB again. I can understand his running ability dropping off, but I can’t understand why they aren’t using him on short passes anymore. Vincent Jackson on the other hand could be a top 15 WR next season, and with the emergence of Malcom Floyd, Chris Chambers could be expendable. Phillip Rivers put up numbers just to spite me for benching him.

Marshawn Lynch is another player that went off just because I benched him. He’ll probably drop into the 2nd round in drafts next season, where he could be a steal if the coaching staff ever decides to use him consistently. This just in, J.P. Losman still sucks.

Seattle trumped the Rams in the Toilet Bowl. Coach Haslet claims that Steven Jackson was dizzy late in the game. I can’t wait to hear what S-Jax has to say about that.

I don’t know what to say about the Miami/San Francisco game, so I won’t say anything.

We all better hope that Fred Taylor is out of the picture next season. MJD had a good game today, but over the course of a season he could do great things for fantasy teams if he’s getting all the touches. Dennis Northcutt blew up today. Really?

I’m REALLY glad that I took Andre Johnson as my WR1 this season, and that I’ll be able to keep him for the next 5 years. He single handedly made up for some of the bad choices I made (Robert Mathis and Ryan Grant) this weekend.

I’ve said it before, but the Lions really need to get a franchise QB to throw to Calvin Johnson. Orlovsky was good today, but I don’t think that he has anyone thinking that he is the QB of the future. Wait a minute, this is the Lions. They may actually think that he IS the QB of the future and then they will use the first pick in the draft on a kicker.

In other news that doesn’t make sense, the Bengals somehow managed to beat Washington. This is another game that I don’t have much to comment on (sorry folks, they can’t all the winners).

Mike Turner in the top 5 next season? I think so people.

Pierre Thomas will be a great value in the middle rounds next season. He’s a great receiver as well as a runner, so Reggie Bush’s value could take a major hit next season.

That’s all I’ve got this week, congratulations to all of us that made it to the championship. To the rest of you I say, sucks to be you! Good luck to everyone next weekend, except my opponents in both my leagues.

Arizona clinches the NFC West!!! That falls into the category of things I never thought that I’d hear. Remember Donnie Avery? What happened to him? Steven Jackson, I’m glad that I didn’t start you, and that I have enough talent on my team to leave you planted on the bench.

Anyone want to bet on what Brett Favre does this off season? Yeah, me neither. But he really isn’t helping the Jets all that much. David Harris finally showed up on the stat sheet for IDP leaguers, too bad nobody still has him on a roster.

Larry Johnson is NOT in fact able to put up 200 yards at will against the Broncos. Brandon Marshall finally stole the spotlight back from Eddie Royal.

Seneca Wallace had almost 260 total yards and 3 TDs? Against the Pats? Really? Cheatin’ Bill Bellichick should have his defense running wind sprints until Tuesday. It looks like Wes Welker is still paying Matt Cassell $100 per catch.

This just in, J.P Losman still sucks. As long as he’s starting Lynch will be looking at 8 man fronts. Remember last week when I said to keep an eye on Devone Bess? Well hopefully some of you picked him up.

I don’t know how high Roddy White will be drafted next year, but I wouldn’t be shocked to see him in the top 5. Even ahead of players like T.O. and Steve Smith. Reggie who? Just give Pierre Thomas the ball! I’m done talking up Matt Ryan. If you don’t know how good this kid is by now you don’t deserve to know.

CLEARLY Brian Westbrook is back and feeling great. Maybe the Giants DO need Burress. I saw Hixon drop one pass that was inexcusable.

To say that Ken Dorsey was awful would be an insult to all the awful QBs out there. Speaking of the draft next year, do you think that Braylon Edwards will be drafted as a top 20 WR? If this year proves to be a fluke the guy could be a major bargain. Chris Johnson. You and Steve Slaton are the ones making it so that I can bench Steven Jackson. Thank you.

I wonder where T.J. Houshmanzadeh will end up next year. Maybe Baltimore will take a shot at him. All it takes for Peyton Manning to have a good game is for him to play one of the worst teams in the league. I’d be concerned about Joseph Addai if I had him in a keeper league, very concerned.

Daunte Culpepper managed to complete all his passes to the right team today!!! Sorry Lions fans, just trying to give you something positive to take with you from the game. Thank God Calvin Johnson gets those deep passes. I don’t know how many times those bombs have saved me when I had him in my starting lineup.

I hate you Kevin Walter. You are always stealing yards and TDs from Andre Johnson when I need them most!!! But you aren’t reliable enough to start with confidence. Steve Slaton is another guy that I’m done talking up. The RB pool will be pretty deep at the draft next year thanks to him and the other rookie RBs that are tearing up the league.

That’s all I’ve got time for. The kids are crying, the wife is adding to my honey-do list as I type. Good luck to all of us who are still in the playoff hunt!

P.S. Did I mention that the Steelers beat the Cowboys?

Larry Johnson is hitting his stride just in time for the fantasy playoffs. Thigpen only had 162 yards passing and Tony Gonzalez had 110 of those yards. Maybe the Raiders should have put somebody on him?

Eddie Royal continues to be a more valuable WR in fantasy than Brandon Marshall, especially if you get return yardage. Teams are covering Marshall with 6 guys and leaving Royal alone.

Is it just me or did Michael Turner look extra motivated against his former team? Matt Ryan might be a top 5 fantasy QB next season, but you should be able to get him cheaper than that. Speaking of Ryan, he has to be glad that the Lions didn’t end up at the top of the draft board this year. I don’t know what is wrong with Tomlinson, but there has to be SOMETHING going on with him. Not only is he not producing, but they aren’t even using him.

It looks like Eli Manning can no longer be considered a bad play late in the season. Even last year he wasn’t worth starting in fantasy, but this season he’s putting up good numbers. Congratulations if you managed to pick up Dominik Hixon. The kid could really help you out as long as he doesn’t shoot himself in the leg. I hereby nominate Plaxico Burress for the jackass of the year award. He did nothing but whine about wanting a raise, then he got one and put up mediocre numbers and then shoots himself in the leg.

Guess what? Drew Brees is in fact human. And good luck deciding which of his WRs is going to go off each week. Jeremy Shockey is lucky Burress shot himself or the award would be heading his way.

The Colts offense was slowed by the STAUNCH Browns defense this week. Someone want to tell me how that happened? What a crappy game this must have been to watch, I’m glad it wasn’t on while I was at home! On a side note, maybe Ken Dorsey IS the answer in Cleveland. Yea, I don’t really think so either. The most interesting story coming out of Ohio will be waiting to see if Bill Cowher takes the job.

Hopefully Steven Jackson didn’t tweak his stupid thigh this weekend, he was looking good for a while. I could really use him during the playoffs. Not much else to say about this game. Keep an eye on Devone Bess. He had a good game and may be worth adding.

DeAngelo Williams … my God, what happened today? Beware, next week it will be Jonathon Stewart going off for 4 TDs. Ryan Grant, you are officially dead to me. I didn’t even start him, but I’ll be glad when the season is over and I no longer have to look at him on my roster.

I’m surprised that the Ravens didn’t let Ray Rice and Todd Heap throw touchdown passes against the Bengals. This was truly a men against boys game. How happy do you think Flacco is that the Lions passed on him for Gosder Cherilus?

Marshawn Lynch is also busting out just in time for the fantasy playoffs, and he has a good schedule. Plug him in and forget about him. Don’t forget to back him up with Fred Jackson if you haven’t already. If something were to happen to Lynch (knock on wood) Jackson could be pretty valuable.

It doesn’t matter who Forte is playing, he’ll find a way to get you points. Yet another start and forget option if you have him. Match-up proof, that’s what he is. I made the right move starting Berrian! I don’t care if all his points came from one play, I’ll take it.

It appears that it IS possible to keep the duo of Fitzgerald and Boldin under 100 yards. I didn’t think I’d see that this season, let alone both of them in the same game.

Yes, the Seahawks really are that bad. I wonder how they will look next year when Jim Mora Jr. takes over.

Yes the Lions really are that bad. Wait, I used that already. My God are they bad, maybe the worst team I’ve personally ever seen. They really may not win a game this year. Everyone said that about Miami last season, but at least Miami was in some close games. Jerry Jones should just step up and give Romo another raise, there’s no questioning what he means to that team.

Good luck on Monday everyone! I hope you all win your match-ups, or at least half of you anyway. I’ll be pulling for Andre Johnson to have a huge night so I can win the total points payday in my work league. Come on man! I need another one of your 120 yard, 2 TD nights!

If Anquan Boldin is still in Arizona next year I’ll be drafting him ahead of Larry Fitzgerald, it doesn’t matter who they play … Boldin is money.

So Clinton Portis is hurt huh? Yea, right. Sure he is. As far as the Seattle passing attack goes, move along, there is still nothing to see here.

Michael Turner is a BEAST, hopefully his career follows a different path than the last backup RB that left for a starting gig and put up a great year. Yes I’m talking about LaMont Jordan. Remember a few years ago when he was a top 5 back?

When the Raiders drop 31 points on you, you know that your defense SUCKS. What I don’t get is how the Broncos only manage 10 points. So much for Eddie Royal having a monster game. If anyone in your league rushes to plug Ashley Lelie into their starting lineup next week, point at them and laugh.

Culpepper and Stanton both sucked today, but somehow Calvin Johnson still had a good day. Just imagine how good he’ll be if/when they get a good QB there. I’m going to have a hard time not keeping him in my keeper league, but I’ll be using one of my first picks on him for sure.

MJD led the Jags in receiving this week, proving that he’ll get his one way or another. I wonder if Fred Taylor will retire or go where over the hill RBs go to finish out their careers (Arizona).

Counting the fake punt, FOUR different people attempted passes for the lowly Rams. Despite the fact that they have two wins, they really are the worst team in the league. Keeping Matt Forte in my keeper league will be the easiest decision I make, Steven Jackson on the other hand is going to be a tough choice.

I wonder if Tony Gonzalez is still mad that he wasn’t traded. The Chiefs passing attack is looking really good, and even though Larry Johnson isn’t getting many carries he’s having more success. They just need to get him involved in the passing game more. He’s proven to be a capable receiver in the past.

Congratulations to any of you that were desperate enough that you actually started Trent Edwards. Where the hell did this game come from?

Chris Johnson and LenDale White stunk it up for a 3rd straight week. Luckily they get to play the Lions this week, and Cleveland the following week.

Terrell Owens’ hatred of the 49ers was on full display this weekend. 7 catches for 213 yards? I guess the ‘9ers were selling out to stop Jason Witten.

Brady Quinn and Derek Anderson combined to put up horrific numbers. In PPR leagues Andre Johnson is really something else. I’m glad that I drafted him over Braylon Edwards this year.

The McNabb and Reid era looks to be over. McNabb was terrible today, and Reid doesn’t seem to have it anymore. Granted they were playing the Ravens, but even so this was a particularly bad game. Once again it was a different Ravens RB that led the way, stay away from this situation.

Matt Cassel could be an every week start the rest of the year, but you’ll feel a little sick every time you plug him in. Reports are that he wants a big contract next year, good luck with that Matt. After what happened to Derek Anderson this year the entire league will likely be gun-shy. Except the Raiders. If they’ll give Javon Walker the kind of money he got they might as well throw a suitcase of money at Cassel.

Something is wrong with the universe when the Steelers only manage ONE sack against the Bengals. Of course Fitzpatrick never took more than a 3 step drop. Good luck to those of you that own Willie Parker, at best you’re looking at a time share with Moore.

That’s all I got this week. Happy Thanksgiving everyone!

Ronnie Brown owners have to be mad. He had a very good day, but didn’t manage to get either of the Dolphins rushing TDs. As far as the Raiders go, just move along, there really is nothing to see here.

What a lucky bunch the Bucs seem to be. Earnest Graham hurts his knee the week they get back Caddy. If Graham’s injury is serious … I don’t think they’ll have the luxury of sitting Caddy the next two weeks. Dunn looked good, but I don’t think he can carry the load for an extended period. Congrats to Gus Frerotte, he managed to complete all his passes to the right team this week.

Man, did the Giants ever make Ray Lewis eat his words this week. The Ravens didn’t fare any better against the Giants rushing than the previous teams. Baltimore also reinforced my belief that I want NOTHING to do with their running game.

Marques Colston may not quite be back to every week starter status just yet, and I should have listened to my gut and started Lance Moore. Larry Johnson looked good today, I think we can expect good things from him moving forward, provided he doesn’t beat any more women.

I thought Steve Slaton was “wearing down?” He didn’t look too worn out to me. I’m going to start praying for an early return for Schaub. Man, does their passing game ever need him back. The entire Colts offense got back on track today, everyone except Anthony Gonzalez that is. Sucks to be you dude.

I think Kevin and Lyle are the only people that didn’t catch passes from McNabb today, and I think they were targeted twice each. Westbrook clearly isn’t back yet, and I’m wondering if there isn’t something else wrong with him. How much do you think the Bengals will have to come up with to keep Housh there? Other than Franchising him, I don’t think he’ll stay there. By the way, how the hell did the Bengals keep the Eagles under 40 points? It doesn’t matter, I still think Lewis is a goner.

The Lions are bad, REAL bad. Really, really, bad. But even that doesn’t explain what Williams and Stewart did to them. Wow. And yet, somehow, the Panthers couldn’t get anything going on through the air. It’s a sad day when you’re outplayed by Daunte Culpepper, Mr. Delhomme. Kevin Smith ran well again today, and appears to be set to have a good career. Hopefully he doesn’t suffer the same fate that befell Kevin Jones.

You know a team’s running game is in dire straights when, A) they re-sign Tatum Bell, and B) they have SIX different people carry the ball in a game. The biggest surprise in this game was that somehow Matt Ryan didn’t throw a TD pass. Peyton Hillis could be worth a look if you’re desperate at RB. Two TDs and a 4.4 yards per carry aren’t too bad. At worst he’ll get the goal line carries.

As good as Brandon Jacobs is, I’m REALLY glad I traded him away for Anquan Boldin. The guy had his face destroyed and hasn’t missed a beat since returning. Maybe he can teach Steven Jackson some toughness. I said it before, the Cardinals were FOOLS for not signing him in the offseason. I don’t see how they will be able to afford him after the year he’s having. Anyone that has any Seahawks on their fantasy squads shouldn’t expect much the rest of the year. Sorry guys, they really look done.

Chris Johnson let a lot of us down this week, especially those of us who benched Slaton ( or MJD) for him. Teams need to learn that Kerry Collins can still thrown the ball, and they can’t just sell out to stop the Titans’ running game.

The Rams really, really need Steven Jackson back. Pittman had a good day, but he doesn’t command the defense’s respect like Jackson does. If there was any doubt, Donnie Avery IS the future of the Rams passing game, I wonder where Torry Holt will go next season.

Phillip Rivers let everyone down today, even his parents. I didn’t expect much from him against my Steelers, but I also didn’t expect him to do THIS poorly. I’m just happy that he didn’t stick me with negative points. Willie Parker looked great today, and his shoulder doesn’t appear to be an issue at all. Feel free plugging him in….until he gets hurt again.

It’s official, nobody runs harder than Marion Barber. Nobody. Tony Romo looked adequate in his return. His Pinkie looks like it’s still bothering him, so I wouldn’t expect gaudy numbers from him until it’s 100%.

Peyton Manning looked Manning-esque today. Of course the Colts were helped by a couple of questionable pass interference calls, but who’s keeping track. The Steelers dared Manning to go to Harrison, and he did, but either the timing is still off or Harrison is flat-out done.

It was a battle of terrible QB play between Jake Delhomme and Andrew Walter. As I heard one commentator say, “You had to REALLY love football to sit and watch this game.” DeAngelo Williams was unstoppable in this game. Maybe the Raiders can trade for him in the off-season and then his career will tank. Seriously, why would ANYONE sign with the Raiders? When was the last time a player went there and played well?

Sage Rosenfels … isn’t very good. Granted he was playing the Ravens, but still, it was awful. Good luck figuring out who will be the lead back for Denver, I mean, Baltimore each week. I half expect them to sign Najeh “Dookie” Davenport and feature him next week.

Is there anyone that plays better than Adrian Peterson when he’s mad at himself? He fumbles early, paces on the sideline and then goes back in and runs like a wrecking ball the rest of the game. I’m starting to be a little hopeful for Ryan Grant. He’s been decent the last few weeks, and if he can put up 75 and a TD against the Vikings I think there’s hope for him in the second half.

So much for the St. Louis revival. Until Steven Jackson returns there isn’t ANYONE worth starting on this team. I’m glad that I was able to trade Cotchery away a couple of weeks ago, but I do wish that I had traded for Thomas Jones. It looks like the coaches have finally figured out how to use him.

Wes Welker is PPR gold! Well, he was yardage gold today as well. Marshawn Lynch continued his struggles, at his current pace he won’t even reach 1,000 yards. I’m going to have a very tough choice with him in my keeper league this off-season. Both Edwards and Lynch should be able to put up good numbers down the stretch though. They have cake match ups 4 of the next 6 weeks. Hell, Lynch may even break the all elusive 100 yard barrier!

Chad Pennington continues to be DOMINANT. Okay, maybe not dominant, but above average at least. Raise your hand if you started Ricky Williams today. Anyone? Hasselbeck is “expected” to be back next week, you Seahawks fans sure better hope so.

Quick quiz, what cures an ailing offense? That’s right, playing the Lions. You might want to sell high on Maurice Jones-Drew, 3 of his next 4 games are against brutal match-ups. He does get Green Bay and Indy in weeks 15 and 16, so he may be worth starting then. Is the league EVER going to suspend Matt Jones? I’ve been leaving him sitting on the FA list because of this mess. I mean, come on. The guy was flat out busted not only doing cocaine, but admitted it was his and plead guilty to it. Seems pretty open and shut to me. Goodell has suspended other players for a lot less than this.

Man did Da Bears ever shut down the Tennessee running game. And Fischer said, “Turn loose the QB!” Rexy looked just like everyone thought he would. I heard Lovie Smith was at an internet café ordering a hyperbaric chamber for Kyle Orton with his own money. Luckily it doesn’t matter who Forte is playing against or who is leading the Bears offense, he’s going to get his.

Raise your hand is you had the Falcons in contention to win the NFC South. Put your hand down you liars!! Seriously, who does this Matt Ryan kid think he is coming into the league and playing like this? Doesn’t he realize that you are supposed to take 2-3 years to develop as a QB? I said it before, this kid bears serious consideration in keeper leagues, and in dynasty leagues he’s a no-brainer. Marques Colston is back, so you better be starting him every week from now on.

Then there’s the Broncos, owners of one of the worst defenses in recent memory. I’ll wait to pass judgment on Quinn until he goes up against a competent defense, but he looked pretty decent. Maybe Derek Anderson would have looked as good if the game plan had called for more dump offs to Kellen Winslow. I really thought I had something in Ryan Torain, right up until he blew out his knee. At least I own Cutler in one league. Between the lack of a running game and the porous defense I expect him to be attempting 40+ passes each week.

Tyler Thigpen’s domination continued this week. Seriously, he made Ronde Barber look BAD on that route. I thought Jamaal Charles had a high ankle sprain? Didn’t seem to slow him down one bit. LJ owners will continue to be frustrated when he returns in week 11 because he’ll probably be splitting carries with this guy.

So much for Donnie Avery’s emergence. I actually started him over Calvin Johnson this week because Johnson got shut down when he played Da Bears earlier this year. DOH!! Kind of a quiet 342 yards from Warner, none of his targets topped 100 yards. Steven Jackson… I HATE YOU!!!! You’ll be riding my bench in both leagues until you show me that you are back to 100%.

As I said above, Steven Jackson will be on my bench, partly because I have Chris Johnson to turn to. Man, did he ever go off. I’m gonna say it, Johnson and FatDale are the best 1-2 punch in the league. Johnson’s arrival has sparked White’s effort. How much do you Jennings owner hate Driver today?

Better run out and pick up Ray Rice. Oh wait, it WAS the Browns so be careful what you expect. He definitely looks better than McGahee though. Winslow and his “Staphy Ball” looked better today. Edwards looked good today, but I’m still not sold on him (or Anderson) for the second half.

You start Calvin Johnson every week no matter who he’s playing or who is throwing him the ball…I’ll try to remember this going forward (damn you Avery!). I actually think that Culpepper will help the Lions, but they REALLY need to spend their top pick on a QB next year. Kyle Orton has at LEAST a high ankle sprain, probably worse. Sorry Bears fans but say hello to Rexy!!!

Marshawn Lynch, you are right up there with Steven Jackson this week!! Between the two of you, it’ll be a miracle if I somehow pull out a “W” in my main league. Favre and Edwards seemed to be in a contest of who can throw the worst INTs today.

Adrian Peterson is starting to look more confident, and he managed to avoid fumbling today! Owen Daniels, I hate you. You stole WAY too many points from Andre Johnson today. All us Schaub owners need to hope that we can land Rosenfels in the waiver draft this week!

Were the Dolphins rolling 5 players Brandon Marshall’s way? Whoever it was on here that I told to NOT start Camarillo, I’m sorry. Never listen to me again. Thank God nobody asked me about starting Peyton Hills! If the Broncos can stop the “wildcat” then the rest of the league better be able to as well.

In case anyone has missed it, Matt Ryan is REALLY good. And today he even remembered that there are other players to throw the ball to besides Roddy White. Also just in, JaMarcus Russell is not so good. As Chandler Bing would say, “Could the Raiders BE any worse?”

I normally don’t have much love for the Giants, but they did stomp the Cowboys. So much for me thinking that Burress would re-emerge this week. You Dallas fans better hope that Romo is back soon, you don’t want to see Brooks Bollinger running the show there. Even I am starting to feel a little bad for you! Only a little though.

Congrats to whoever was desperate enough to start Brent Celek this week. If you DID have him in the lineup you must be in a 30 team league! Contrary to popular belief, it IS possible to defend Brian Westbrook. With his stat line I thought that he must have gotten hurt, but couldn’t find anything about it.

Matt Cassell “is who we thought he was”. It also appears that Manning isn’t all THAT much better at the moment. I don’t care what the coaching staff is saying, there is something wrong with him. There really wasn’t much of note in this game, something that you haven’t been able to say for the longest time.

Donnie Avery looks for real, REALLY for real. I had picked him up only to drop him because I needed some RB depth. I doubt I’ll be able to get him back in the waiver draft this week. Could Randy Moss be a viable every week starter? I’m not buying it. I think you still need to play the match-up game with him.

280 and 2 TDs from Tyler Thigpen? Really? I……I don’t even know what to say.

My god Roddy White is good, and it doesn’t seem to matter who he’s playing against. Ryan and White are shaping up to be a great duo. If you’re in a keeper league you have to seriously think about these guys. Feel free to drop Buckhalter, unless you own Westbrook that is.

I don’t know what’s wrong with Colston but I hope that it’s just rust. Even Aaron Stecker was more productive than him today. Antonio Gates and Billy Miller put on a good display of TE ability for the Brits.

There wasn’t anything overly impressive in the cowboys/Buccaneers game. Terrell Owens continues to underwhelm, he’s GOT to be near the boiling point.

When Joe Flacco catches a 43 yard pass, EVERYONE involved with the defense should be ashamed, even the guys not on the field. When Joe Flacco is your second leading receiver, EVERYONE involved with the offense should be ashamed.

Seriously, what is up with Pennington? How is he putting up these numbers? Could the Jets have been better off with him instead of Favre? He may not be throwing as many TDs, but he also isn’t turning the ball over nearly as much as Favre is. Ronnie Brown sure has disappeared from the stat line lately.

Seneca Wallace seems to have found his favorite receiver in RB Leonard Weaver. They really should get this guy in the game more as a RB. Other than these two there wasn’t much to see here.

Can someone tell me what the hell happened to MJD today? Playing against the lowly Browns I thought he was a lock for 100 and a TD. Then he was shut down by the Browns “stout” defense. I guess Matt Jones just needed to hit bottom in order to decide to start working at being a good football player. I’d feel good about plugging him in each week as a WR2, and great plugging him in as a WR3.

If Andre Johnson isn’t the best WR in the league, I don’t know who is. All he does is haul in double digit catches and break the 100 yard mark almost every week. More TDs would be nice, but you can’t complain about what he’s getting you. The Bengals really may not win a game this year. At this point they look even worse than the Dolphins did last year.

Anquan Boldin is back and doesn’t look like he missed a beat. Fitz is always going to have more yards, but Boldin will get the TDs and more receptions. I like him more than Fitz in PPR leagues. Steve Breaston was still able to be productive despite the return of Boldin. The Carolina running game is quickly looking like the Broncos of years past, you just don’t know which RB is going to go off each week.

What a crappy way for the Steelers to lose this game. A botched snap for a safety and then the ensuing TD drive by the Giants. Mewelde Moore continues to look good, and I think we’re looking at a 50/50 split when Parker finally returns. The Steelers better draft some o-line help next year. Ben isn’t going to last long with the pounding that he’s taking. Picking up John Carney to cover for Matt Prater this week paid off great for me!

How ‘bout them cowboys! Always start Steven Jackson … ALWAYS. I benched him in one league in favor of a juicy Steve Slaton matchup. DOH! Now I just hope his injury isn’t serious. Dallas better hope that Romo can get back on the field soon … Brad Johnson isn’t going to get it done.

I don’t know what to say about the 49ers – Giants game other than man do I love watching Jacobs run. Can you imagine anything scarier on the field that being a cornerback and having this guy coming at you at full speed? I guess maybe if he had a knife it would be scarier.

Did I mention that I HATE myself for not picking up Kyle Orton a couple weeks ago? If Frerotte can stop throwing to the other team, the Vikes might actually go somewhere this season. What the hell happened to their defense?!?!?!! I reached for them in both drafts I was in this year, never again will I reach for a defense. NEVER!

Damn my Steelers are looking good!!! OK, it was against the Bengals, but they still look good. Sorry Bengals fans, but I think that you guys will be lucky to win a single game this year, especially with Palmer looking to be out for the season. There’s really no point in him playing, so they should sit him down. Somehow Chocko Stinko found the end zone and had a good day. But did anyone actually start him? Didn’t think so. Santonio Holmes is going to be a beast next season, mark it down.

I also hate myself for dropping Delhomme a few weeks back to pick up Hasselbeck. Wish I could go back and do that one over. He and Steve Smith look like they are clicking again. I’m glad that my trade offer for Reggie Bush was turned down. His knee seems to be worse than they let on. He’s off to see the dreaded Dr. James Andrews this week. I have a bad feeling about this. My condolences go out to everyone (like me) that started Colston today.

I’m REALLY glad that I traded Tomlinson away in my keeper league for Steven Jackson before the start of the year. LT2’s days as the overwhelmingly dominant RB are over. He’s still getting you decent numbers, but certainly not first overall pick numbers. I hate you Lee Evans. For years I drafted you only to have you let me down or blow up while on my bench, and this year I pass on you and you’re off to a very good start.

Joey Porter seems to be having something of a career resurgence. Good for him. I was disappointed when the Steelers let him go. While we’re talking resurgence, I want everyone on the Ravens defense tested! I don’t know what happened in the off season, but man are they ever back to their old form. Chad Pennington certainly seems to like playing in Miami. He’s looking like THE old Chad Pennington instead of AN old Chad Pennington.

I’m also glad that my trade offer for Brandon Marshal was turned down. I was willing to give up Andre Johnson and Chris Johnson a few weeks ago, but Andre is looking like a monster right now. Thank god for the deep bomb, otherwise Calvin Johnson would have let me down big time. Orlovsky managed to remember the field dimensions today, and he didn’t look too bad throwing the ball.

The Redskins have come back to earth big time. They are still managing to win, but their offense isn’t rolling like it was. Other than Portis that is. That guy is on a tear. So much for the Browns getting ready to go on a roll again.

Peyton Manning and the Colts still don’t look right. Rhodes should continue to be a good start until Addai is back. Even after Addai comes back you can expect a workload split like they had in their championship year. If you have Ryan Grant (like me) I’d try to sell high on him. He finally had a good day, but look at his yards per carry average. Even yesterday he only managed 3.4, which isn’t great. I will be trying to trade him for some help at WR.

Brett Favre looked, well, God awful. HE is the only reason the Raiders won this game. The Raiders certainly didn’t do anything on offense worthy of getting the “W”.

Jeff Garcia plays REALLY well when he’s mad at his coach. If the Bucs start to struggle, Gruden should bench him for a game or two to get him mad again. Seahawks fans, you are in for a long year. With only one win under their belt there doesn’t appear to be any reason to rush Hasselbeck back, and without him they aren’t going to do anything on offense. I’m dumping Engram this week for, well, I’ll have to see.

Enjoy the Monday night game!

I don’t know who looked better today, Buckhalter or Gore. The 49ers finally got Vernon Davis involved, but don’t rush out and pick him up or plug him into your starting lineup. What happened to Lorenzo Booker being a Westbrook clone?

Man, I love seeing the cowboys (lowercase on purpose) lose. It’s almost as good as seeing my Steelers win. Congrats to all of you who swooped in and picked up Steve Breaston two weeks ago. I think that he’ll continue to have value even after Boldin is back. And if Boldin leaves next season, Breaston could be a great value. 11 catches for Marion Barber?!?!! I bet T.O. will be pouting this week.

If Matt Jones could only find the end zone, he’d be an every-week starter, especially in PPR leagues. Remember the name Ryan Torain. The rookie RB will be coming off of IR soon and he just might be this year’s version of Ryan Grant. His running style fits the Denver blocking scheme, and Selvin Young hasn’t looked like the answer—and he’s hurt…again.

I don’t know how you can bench Roddy White. Congrats to whoever started Matt Ryan (I’m looking at you, Mrs. Ryan). Not much else to say here, other than if you own Forte and aren’t starting him each and every week, you don’t deserve to have him on your roster. Did anyone out there have the Falcons starting 4-2? Sure you did.

Thank God Matt Schaub is back. Of course, as an Andre Johnson owner I’m biased toward whatever makes him blow up during a game. I wish I had picked up Chad Pennington. I think that he has more value than Hasselbeck (my QB2). Did anyone start Patrick Cobbs? If you did, you must be in a 30-team league.

Looks like Jason Campbell has come back to earth a little, and Santana Moss has turned in back-to-back stinkers. It may be time to start worrying. If you drafted Torry Holt, I feel for you. It looks like he’s done. He hasn’t had more than 80 yards or more than 6 catches in a single game yet this season. He has to turn it around sometime, I’m just not sure when it will happen.

I’m hating Warrick Dunn. Yes, I own Earnest Graham, so that’s why. The talk of Jake Delhomme’s resurgence seems to have been a bit premature. I think that he is still working back into the game, but there is reason to be optimistic. His yardage has been increasing, he just need to dial in his accuracy.

Sorry Bengals fans, but in case you didn’t get the memo, the Bengals are done. Palmer is getting his elbow looked at by the Mets team doctor. I wouldn’t be surprised to see him placed on IR soon. I don’t think there will be a coaching change until the offseason, though. I figure they’ll ride it out and take the high draft picks. If there is a more overrated WR than Chad Johnson, please tell me who you think it is.

I hate myself for not picking up Lance Moore. The Raiders will never be good again until Al Davis is out of the picture. My money is on him ending up having to pay Lane Kiffin, no matter how much money he spends trying to get out of it. I think that Brees is the best fantasy QB this season. He’s putting up huge games and he’s doing it without his top receiving options. Just wait until Colston and Shockey are back.

Okay, it’ll be a three-way race for the top pick next year between the Bengals, Raiders, and Lions. Bernard Berrian is looking really good with Frerotte in the lineup. Who knew?

I’m officially worried about Joseph Addai. I know he was hurt this week, but he didn’t look good at all even before that. You likely don’t have any better options, but if you do, I’d bench him until he shows us something. I still think that Ray Rice has more value than McGahee. He’s a better receiver, and I think he has better speed. If any of you started LaRon McClain, wow, are you mad right now.

Bill Belichick is proving just how arrogant he is by sticking with Cassel—the guy is just plain awful. I understand that a new QB would take time to learn the offense, but if Belichick had signed someone back in week 2, wouldn’t he be mostly up to speed by now? With the emergence of the Bills and Jets, and the Dolphins showing signs of life, I think the Pats are looking to miss the playoffs. They should finish with a better record that Miami (”should” being the operative word).

Well, that’s about everything that I learned this week. Enjoy the Monday night game everyone!

Now, you may have chalked up the whole thing to happenstance and a fluke play on Bernard Pollard’s part (unless you’re Randy Moss, that is). However, I have no doubt that the fantasy gods saw what was going on in drafts this year and were very displeased. Mr. Pollard was simply the tool with which they chose to smite the fantasy infidels. (No, Mr. Pollard, I didn’t just call you a tool; well, not a “tool.”) The fantasy gods are vengeful gods. It might be time to consider sacrificing a virgin. (Not to advocate suicide for so many of you. I kid, I kid.)?

But we warned you about the pitfalls of taking a quarterback in the first round of your draft. We hit you with all kinds of stats, trends, historical analysis, and enough “magic formulas” to make Walt Disney blush. We told you that a QB coming off one of the greatest seasons in NFL history had nowhere to go but down, and that wasn’t even taking the risk of injury into account. But nooooo, you just couldn’t resist, could you? You couldn’t say no to Brady’s rugged good looks, his babe impregnating prowess, and his fancy-schmancy 50 touchdown passes from 2007 (passes, mind you, worth nothing this year). You had to have him. So much so, that his average draft position on many sites this summer was as high as fifth or sixth overall. Ridiculous.

And now what do you do? Hopefully you grabbed another decent QB, but I?m guessing you didn’t, because you probably spent the next seven or eight draft picks on running backs, wide receivers, and early tight ends to try to cover up the cascading holes you created by taking Brady in the first round. Your backup QB is (if you’re lucky!) likely of the Jason Campbell, Jon Kitna ilk. You also probably said to yourself, “Who cares about the one bye week if I’m rolling Brady the other 12?” Well, now you care. And now you’ll be rueing that Brady pick for the next 12 weeks, as other teams beat you like a Tibetan monk at a Chinese police picnic.

Some of you are probably getting defensive, saying, “The RB I would’ve drafted in the first round could’ve been injured just as easily.” And to you I’d say: Well, he wasn’t. Not yet at least. And if he was, at least you?d still have a top QB to rely on, as opposed to now, when you’re stuck with a lower-tier QB and, at best, second- and third-round RBs. Trust me on this. I drafted Shaun Alexander with the eighth overall pick last year and still made it to the second round of the playoffs because I drafted Brady in the third round! You can survive the loss of a big RB, especially if your league is configured with flex spots, etc., that compel you to draft depth at the skill positions.

But am I saying this is an injury that’s impossible to recover from? No, not at all. The best and brightest among you will recover from the loss and go on to successful seasons, assuming you hit on some sleepers and can make a couple clutch free agent pickups. Trust me, I know. I?m a guy who owned Brady last year and got knocked out of the playoffs by a team that started Sage “The Jewish Rifle” Rosenfels at QB in Week 15. You don’t need a top guy to win, just a hot guy. (Wait…you know what I mean.) The point is, it’s only week two, bye weeks haven’t even started yet, and you’re stuck cringing at your new number one QB?s matchup while sifting through the fantasy dumpster, trying to decide if Matt Cassel can actually do anything that doesn’t involve a clipboard, or if Vince Young is totally batshit crazy? That?s the type of thing you want to be doing for speculation’s sake, for fun, not out of desperation.

Suddenly fantasy football seems a little less fun, doesn’t it? Unless you’re one of the 11 owners in your league who didn’t draft Brady. In that case, you?re probably basking in the schadenfreude and finding this article infinitely more amusing. Remember, kids, take an RB in the first round next year.

It’s the will of the Gods!!

It was a weird draft to begin with. There was a huge run on RBs after I grabbed Addai with the 1:5 pick, so by the time the snake got back around to me in round two, there was absolutely no round two RB value left. I had to go WR (Reggie Wayne). Same thing in Round three…WR (Andre Johnson). In round four, I had to go RB, so I grabbed Turner…then got Run dMc in round 5. Magic formula complete. But enough about me…

At some point, one of the drafters left the room for some reason, leaving autodraft on. His first few picks were ok, but nothing to write home about. Peyton in round one…Ocho Cinco in round two…Holt in round three. I finally realized that he had ducked out when he picked Eli in round four. Eli and Peyton both have week 4 byes. The AUTODRAFT had kicked in.

Things only got worse from there. In round five, the autodraft treated him to Shaun Alexander. Yes, THAT Shaun Alexander. Round six was much better with a Tony Gonzalez pick at TE…early but at least he’s on a roster. In round seven, the autodraft got caught up in a kicker run, and landed Adam Vinatieri. Again, waaay early, but he’s on a team at least.

The autodraft must have found its stride then, because the next few picks, while questionable, were at least reasonable. Rudi in round eight, the Bears D in round nine, and Javon Walker in round ten. Then it all went to hell. Autodraft picked Henry in round eleven. Not Chris Henry. TRAVIS Henry. Autodraft then decided that this poor bastard needed a backup TE, so it went and got Alge in round 12, who has the same bye week as Tony G. Thanks autodraft!

Nothing like having a backup kicker, just in case, right? Autodraft thinks so, so my man got Robbie Gould in round 13. At least his bye week is different than Vinatieri’s! Unfortunately, you can’t say the same thing for the backup D that autodraft got for my bud in round 14…the Broncos! Week 8 bye…same as the Bears. DOH!

Let’s do a small recap. On this guy’s roster, he has Shaun Alexander and Travis Henry, two RBs that (as of this writing) are not on a team. One of them WON’T be on a team this year for certain (smoke up, Travis!), and the other probably shouldn’t be. What could make matters worse, you ask? You got it! Cedric Benson was nabbed with the round 15 pick. You ROCK autodraft!

The good news is, autodraft recognized that it made an error in grabbing a backup QB that had the same bye week as the starter, so it graciously opted for a third QB in round 16. Alex Smith! Woohoo!

Round 17 was a relatively benign little choice of Darrell Jackson from Denver. After all that tasty autodraft goodness, it seems almost…anti-climatic.

Watch this guy win the whole damn league.

You might remember that at this time last year I warned you about the different characters you’d encounter at your fantasy draft. That, my young Padawans, was only the first lesson. This year, I’m back to give you the lowdown on the draft itself, and what you should and should not be doing with your league when the big day arrives. (I’m assuming, of course, that your league will draft together as a group, in person; if you only participate in online drafts, you’re missing much of the point, but that’s another article). So whether you’re the sucker stuck running your league’s draft, or just the poor schlub with the last pick, you’ll want to heed my every word. After all, draft day is the day you look forward to all year, right? Don’t screw this up!

DO have ten or 12 teams in your league. These 6- or 8-team leagues I’ve seen are a joke, where even the guys on the waiver wire are studs. These leagues are like those cartoons where Bugs Bunny and Daffy Duck stand at close range, shooting each other in the face with cannons. There’s no skill involved! Everyone just points their big guns at everyone else and hopes for the best. If you need more friends, put up a post in the forums! Conversely, anything larger than 12 teams is just too much. I’ve been in some of these 14-, 16-, and even 20-team leagues, and, I’m sorry, if I have no choice but to draft and start a Bears wide receiver or a Texans running back, I’m taking my ball and going home. Find a balance, people. Ten to 12 teams is just the right size.

DON’T hold your draft any earlier than the third week of the preseason. Hey, we’re all excited as hell for the football season, but there’s no reason to jump the gun and suffer from “premature draft-ulation.” There’s still way too much left up in the air at this point. The starters haven’t played enough meaningful time, position battles are still going on, and guys are going to get hurt in the last couple games. It’s just too early. Hell, even the Cardinals still look good! If you must get your fix, head over to Mock Draft Central and practice. Sure, it’s the nonalcoholic beer of fantasy drafts, but you’re just looking for a taste anyway. And you won’t be making any mistakes that you’ll have to live with all year. I’m looking at you, guy who took Willis McGahee in the second round on July 28. (Oh, but don’t worry, running backs with bad knees always come back strong, and right away. Promise.)

DO hold your draft at a restaurant or bar. Many establishments are actually catering to fantasy football drafts nowadays, offering private rooms, specials on food and drinks, and reliable WiFi access. That’s friggin’ clutch, because then you don’t have to spend five hours cramped with 11 other dudes in a basement swamped with mildew and beer farts. You also don’t have to worry about spilled beverages, missed toilets, and your bitterest rivals knowing where you live. The only downside is the potential cost, but if you can’t pony up for the single most important day of the season, it might be time for a little heart-to-heart with your balls. Call it a “gut check”—whatever. This is an investment in your season.

DON’T hold your draft at a strip bar! Yes, a lot of them are offering attractive packages, but therein lies the one major drawback: distraction. This applies to places like Hooters, too. Some of the troglodytes in your league have enough trouble concentrating during drafts on your back patio while your neighbor’s wife weeds her garden. How are they going to cope with Melissa Midwest gyrating in front of the draft board? (I’ll wait while you Google her….Finished?) If you do go this route, don’t blame me when you end up drafting John David Booty, Reggie Bush, Jerious Norwood, Steve Breaston, James Hardy, and Neil Rackers. (Sensing a theme here?)

DO make your league a points-per-reception league. Take back some of the power from the running backs in your draft, and screw the yardage purists. Sure, RB’s will still be by far the most valuable players in your league, since all but Rudi Johnson will also benefit from the PPR scoring, but it adds another wrinkle to your strategy, and it may make for some tougher (and occasionally easier) decisions on draft day. I even recommend tossing in some bonus scoring, too.

DON’T make your league an individual defensive player league. I know, you’re a savvy fan and IDP leagues let you prove it to your buddies. But you’ll soon realize the error of your ways, having extended your draft by 11 roster spots and, more importantly, about three hours. While you’re at it, why not draft offensive linemen and punters? Get yourself a backup long snapper in the thirty-ninth round. It’s called “fantasy football” for a reason, professor. If you want a true simulation, play Head Coach 09.

DO collect all of your league fees before the start of your draft. I don’t care how easygoing you want to be, you need to get all payments up front. Everybody knows at least one of those “spot me now and I’ll pay you later” guys. Accommodate him, and the next thing you know, you’re getting every excuse in the book. He has to pay child support. His strung-out sister needs “medicine.” A relative of deposed Nigerian royalty cleaned out his bank account. Then November rolls around, his team is 1-9, and he’s lost all interest in the league. Good luck collecting. Screw that! Nobody drafts before they pay up. Somebody forgot his wallet? Enact a Goodfellas-style pistol-whipping in the driveway—you know, as a reminder for next year.

DON’T play in a league with your spouse or girlfriend. Look, I love my wife dearly. I’d take a bullet for her, but we’ll never play in a fantasy league together. There’s sharing common interests, and then there’s surrendering your most precious men-only outlet. This is the latter. Every guy needs an escape where he can act like an ass, string together obscure movie references, and discuss the finer points of good cleavage in his most colorful language. Even if you’re the lucky SOB who found someone so special that she can roll with this, her presence will stifle other league members. Trades can look like collusion, you’ll never hear the end of it if she beats you (oh, and she will), and God help you in the bedroom after you run some smack her way on the league Web site. You wouldn’t sleep with the dudes in your league, so don’t play fantasy football with your lady. It’s not cute. Or maybe it is. And maybe that’s the worst part.

So there you have it. Commit these rules to memory, follow them to the letter, and you’ll enjoy a more rewarding fantasy football experience. Besides, you can still go the nudie bar after the draft.

As always, feel free to post your own ideas in the forums.

Standard Deviation
Last year in my article on the Magic Formula, I described standard deviation. It’s the amount one thing differs, on average, from another. For our purposes here, think of it as the “plus or minus.” We’ve all heard someone say, “He scores an average of 30 points, plus or minus 5.” That plus or minus is the standard deviation. If you’re a masochist, go ahead and read the Wikipedia entry. As for understanding it completely, don’t worry; what’s important to know is that it measures consistency. From a fantasy perspective, “consistency” refers to how widely varying a player’s point total will be from week to week. The smaller the point swing, the smaller the standard deviation, and thusly the more consistent a player is.

For the 2007 season, who was the best fantasy QB? Tom Brady, of course. But what if I asked you this: Who was the most consistent QB? Tom Brady? Nope. It was David Garrard. To help you understand what I’m talking about, let’s take a look at the top five fantasy QBs. [For more players and positions, download my Excel spreadsheet.]

Now compare that to a list of the most consistent QBs, those with the lowest standard deviation.

As you can see, this is a very different list. Some of the QBs’ point totals here are actually quite low. Standard deviation, remember, can only tell us how consistent a player is. So in the case of Tarvaris Jackson, for example, the standard deviation alone does us no good because Jackson is consistently bad. On that basis, standard deviation alone is basically a useless stat in fantasy football. However, if we take a player’s standard deviation and subtract it from his weekly scoring output, we end up with an incredibly useful number, his minimum expected value.

Minimum expected value (MEV) is best defined as the lowest total points per week you can expect from any given player. By knowing this number, you can predict a player’s relative value. David Garrard, for example, can reasonably be expected to score at least 12.07 points each week (his average, 18 points, minus his standard deviation, 5.93 points). Take a look at the top five QBs by MEV.

Each week, we can expect Tom Brady to put up at least 18.73 points. No, he won’t do it every week, but he’s likely to do it much more often than not, and more importantly, he’s likely to do it way more often than anyone else. So there, that proves it: Tom Brady is the top fantasy QB. Duh. No, the real benefit of MEV is that it highlights guys like David Garrard and Big Ben, too. In fact, on a weekly basis, we can expect Garrard to outscore every QB in the NFL besides Brady. The math doesn’t lie, and if you subscribe to the theory that consistency is king, MEV can be an invaluable compass come draft day, especially as you hunt for value in the middle rounds, where championship seasons are truly built. Where did Garrard, Hasselbeck, and Big Ben go in your draft last year? I bet it wasn’t in the first five rounds.

The best part about MEV is that it’s universal. It works across players, teams, sports…you name it. Check the spreadsheet again where I detail QBs, RBs, WRs, and TEs. Just a quick glance and you’ll see why guys like Garrard, Ronnie Brown, and Andre Johnson could be the key to your season.

Discussion
After this article was posted, TFFG forum member 7grain pointed out an important fact about SD and MEV on the comments thread: “One Standard Deviation, by definition, encompasses 68% of occurrances. (34% above the average, and 34% below the average). Beyond one STD is 32% of occurrences: 16% above 1 STD and 16% below 1 STD. So you could “geek it up” a little bit more, but not scare people away, by saying that a player beat their MEV 84% of the time. And that’s 11 games out of a 13 game season.” If it seems like too much, just know this: He is absolutely right. Any player should beat their MEV 84% of the time.

There are two ways to look at the Ravens offense and what they need to do to get back to the playoffs. The old way and the new way. The old way is the Steelers way…draft well, build your team from within, and keep your best players. The new way is draft well, build your team from within, keep your best players, and score big in free agency. The Ravens really need to go the new way. Drafting a QB this year will NOT get them to the promised land quick enough to suit the fans OR the front office. Not to Mention Ray, whose window is closing fast. The bad news is, the free agent pool isn’t very deep this year in the areas that the Ravens need to address. But the news isn’t all bad.

QB
Kyle Boller isn’t the answer, and Steve McNair should hang ‘em up. They need a QB badly…here are the FA choices:

Derek Anderson, RFA - Would have to give up a lot to get him.
Rex Grossman, UFA - Boller may be better.
Daunte Culpepper, UFA - It’s doubtful whether or not he will ever return to his old level of play.
Josh McCown, UFA - May be the best choice of the bunch.
Quinn Gray, UFA - Played well when given the chance, but remain unproven as “The Man”.
Ken Dorsey UFA - Please.
Ryan Fitzpatrick RFA - Who?
Drew Henson UFA - Uh, yeah.
Cleo Lemon UFA - Could be a decent candidate…seriously.
Jared Lorenzen UFA - More of a sideshow act than an NFL QB.
Jamie Martin UFA - Didn’t know he was even still playing.
Anderson would be a great fit, but The Browns have indicated that they plan of keeping him. McCown is an interesting option. He played ok when given the chance in Arizona, but then Leinart came along. He had some success, pre-injury, with the Raiders. Cleo Lemon did a decent job on an awful Miami team, but I think Ravens fans would burn down M&T if he was signed as the QB of the future.

Maybe sign McCown AND draft a QB is the option. Josh is capable of managing the team, and the youngster can season for a season (!) and the Ravens can shoot for 2009. I wouldn’t draft my QB in the first round, though. More on that later.

WR

Like a lot of teams, the Ravens are short a playmaker at WR. Here’s the list of FA WRs:

Randy Moss, UFA

Bernard Berrian, UFA

Patrick Crayton, UFA

Bryant Johnson, UFA

Drew Carter, UFA

Andre’ Davis UFA

Justin Gage UFA

Devery Henderson, UFA

Antonio Chatman UFA

Keary Colbert UFA

Terrance Copper UFA

Malcom Floyd RFA

Doug Gabriel UFA

D.J. Hackett UFA

Az-Zahir Hakim UFA

Taylor Jacobs UFA

Jerome Mathis RFA

Samie Parker UFA

David Patten UFA

Marcus Robinson UFA

I don’t see Moss anywhere but New England next year, so take him off of the list. Do you see a #1 WR in there anywhere? MAYBE Crayton, if he can stay healthy and not be a pinhead. MAYBE Henderson, if he can stay healthy. Maybe Berrian, if he has the right QB (hey, Grossman is a FA…bring them both in!). I like Hackett a lot, but I think Seattle will try to keep him (and I think he’s more of a slot guy). Bryant Johnson from the Cardinals is interesting, but he was disappointing in the time he had to start in place of Boldin and Fitz this year. None of the other guys are that impressive, but many of them are better than what the Ravens have and a few could emerge if given a chance. The Ravens can look to the draft for a WR, but not in the first round.

RB

Willis McGahee proved that he is one of the best RBs in the league…not a top 5 guy, but certainly top 10. Musa Smith is a capable backup. The Ravens lack depth at the position, and can find value in the draft in the 3rd and 4th rounds.

O-Line

HERE’S where the first round pick is! This year, OT talent is all over the first round, and with Ogden deciding if he wants to play a 13th year, the Ravens could secure the spot for another 12 years. Jake Long from Michigan may not make it to pick #8, but Sam Baker from USC might, and Chris Williams from Vandy most certainly will. Even Jeff Otah from Pitt is intriguing. Not the sexiest choice for a first round pick, but downright necessary if the Ravens hope to improve on a 5-11 season and compete in the AFC North any time in the near future.

I invite spirited debate on these opinions, as always.

Willie Parker should have a great game this week. He’s better suited to run on this surface than on a muddy, slick field. The Rams have a below-average run defense and only three teams have allowed more rushing touchdowns, so a big game by Parker is possible — maybe 120ish yards and 1-2 TDs.

Working on a dry field and with no wind also should help Santonio Holmes. With his speed, he’s Pittsburgh’s best deep threat, and those plays are easier to hit in these ideal conditions. He moves up our rankings this week, and it comes at the expense of Hines Ward, who’s better at working short routes underneath.

Above-average matchup for Heath Miller. He’s a big part of Pittsburgh’s red-zone offense, and the Rams have struggled with tight ends. St. Louis has allowed a healthy ratio of touchdowns to tight ends (7) as wide receivers (12), and that’s been a big part of Pittsburgh’s offense (which is at 11 TDs to tight ends and 17 to wide receivers).

Ben Roethlisberger hasn’t thrown for 200 yards in any of his last five games, but a lot of that has been weather related. That won’t be a problem on Thursday. In his six previous games, Roethlisberger averaged 243 passing yards, with 16 TDs in those six games. He’ll face a defense that’s below-average in terms of passing yards and passing touchdowns.

St. Louis
We’ll call this a slightly above-average matchup for the St. Louis passing game. Pittsburgh ranks 4th in pass defense, but some holes have cropped up recently in their secondary. Over the last nine weeks, they’re one of only two teams that’s allowed 3-plus TD passes four times. And the Steelers have also lost four of their past five on the road, with all but one of those losses against teams with losing records (Cardinals, Broncos, Jets). So maybe Marc Bulger, who’s from Pittsburgh, can hit some plays and keep the Rams competitive in this game. When he’s relative healthy and gets some time to throw, Bulger is a top quarterback. In his last four relatively complete games, Bulger has averaged 247 passing yards, with 5 TDs in those four games. Certainly, whatever touchdowns the Rams score in this game should come through the air. The Steelers have allowed 18 passing versus only 4 rushing TDs, while the Rams have scored 15 passing versus only 5 rushing. So every time the Rams score in this game — and they should score 2-3 TDs — there’s about an 80 percent chance it will be through the air.

Torry Holt isn’t having a great year. He’s at 75 receiving yards per game. That’s about 15 yards below what you’d hope for him. But he’s still a scorer. He’s caught 7 of the team’s 15 TD passes. So if the Rams throw 2 TDs in this game (and there’s a good chance they will), then Holt almost certainly will grab one of them. It’s an Above-average matchup for Isaac Bruce as well.
It’s a below-average matchup for Steven Jackson. Pittsburgh is having some problems right now, but this is still one of the league’s elite run defenses. Only Minnesota and Baltimore have allowed fewer rushing yards, and the Steelers have allowed a league-low 4 rushing TDs. In their last 62 games, the Steelers have allowed only 31 rushing touchdowns. So the odds are stacked against Jackson getting in the end zone. We’re not moving him too far down our board, however, because Jackson is a heck of a player. He’s also healthy, at home, and in top form. He ran for 143 yards and a touchdown last week against an above-average Green Bay run defense. He’s certainly capable of punching out 100 yards and a touchdown, even against this defense. Jackson, recall, ran for 142 yards and scored 4 TDs in a game against Minnesota’s top-ranked run defense last year. Bottom line is… he’s a must-start.

The Texans are actually favored in this game, believe it or not.

Denver

Much to Lyle’s unhappiness, Selvin Young has wrested the starting RB job away from Travis Henry. Henry is listed as tops on the roster, but SY has started the last two games, and has gotten the bulk of the carries. It looks like Young between the 20s and Henry in the red zone. Factor in a few carries by Andre Hall, and the situation gets even murkier. Either way, somebody is going to get some big-time yards, because Houston ranks 23rd against the run (even though they play better at home).

The last two weeks for Jay Cutler have been a contrast in efficiency. Last Sunday, he played his best career game: 20 of 27 for 244 yards, with 4 TDs. The week before that, he had his worst career game: 16 of 32, 2 interceptions and a fumble. I figure he’s good for a TD and 250 in this game.

Brandon Marshall is the unrivaled beast in Denver now (Javon who?). He caught 10 for 115 yards and 2 TDs last week against Kansas City. He is a definite start this week.

Brandon Stokley could sit out this week with a knee ding. That might mean an expanded role for Javon, um…WALKER, right. Walker sat out 7 games this year, and still isn’t 100%. Either way, keep both of them on the pine this week.

I picked up Tony Scheffler a couple of weeks ago, and I’m considering putting him in this week. With Denver’s WR problems, he might get a larger part of the game plan.

Houston

I never thought I’d ever say this, but “if only Ron Dayne were playing.” There, I said it. Seriously, if Dayne were in the plans for the Texans, I would say give him a roster spot against this spotty Denver run D…but wait. Dayne hasn’t practiced this week. Looks like Darius Walker gets the nod. He could actually do pretty good with this match-up, but it’s playoff time, and I can’t recommend you hang your season on this particular undrafted free agent. Adimchinobe Echemandu not only has an unpronounceable name, but he also has no fantasy value.

Sage Rosenfels gets another start! Denver has been soft against the pass, Champ Bailey notwithstanding, but I have to imagine you have a better option than Sage.

Andre Johnson proved me wrong last week (I called him my sit). This week he draws Bailey, but Johnson is such a stud, he could catch 8 balls for 100 yards and a touchdown anyway. Start him.

This is not going to be an easy game for the Redskins. It’s hard enough to shorten your week to accommodate a Thursday game, but when you also factor in the fact that the team attended Sean Taylor’s funeral on Monday, that just compounds the issue. On top of all that, Washington is 5-7, and some players on the team may just be ready to phone this one in.

Now, the emotions aside, the ‘Skins have a better-than-average chance to compete in this game. They have the 10th ranked defense against the run and have allowed only 8 rushing TDs this season. With Benson out for the year, The Other AP is a slight improvement as a featured back. He did have a decent game this last Sunday, producing 67 yards on 22 carries against the Giants. If the weather turns lousy, figure that AP becomes a slightly better than average start.

The worse the weather, the worse Chicago’s passing outlook becomes. Rex Grossman is questionable AT BEST, so when you shove a wet ball into his hands, it’s a recipe for disaster. Even with decent weather Grossman is averaging .5 TDs per game. Yeah. Lousy weather = sit all Bears QBs and WRs. Fair weather = Bernard Berrian is a better than average start. Everybody else, forget about.

Washington

As mentioned above, the short week, the funeral, and the lost season could cause some apathy on the part of the ‘Skins. Going strictly by the numbers, however, not all hope is lost. The Bears defense really stinks: 27th vs the run and 25th vs the pass. Yikes! Is this the team that went to the Super Bowl last year on the strength of its D?

Clinton Portis is banged up, which is no big surprise. He’s suffering with a sore back and ankle, and hasn’t been very productive recently. There has been talk of limiting him this week, and giving Ladell Betts more work. Hopefully we’ll find out more about that as we approach game time.

Jason Campbell has quietly started to have a decent season. In his last four games, he’s averaged 270 yards. He is still a bit shy on the TD aspect of the game, but that will come with experience. That being said it’s difficult to give him the nod for this week, since the overall state of the team is questionable.

As for the receiving corp, the only guy I can recommend with a straight face is Chris Cooley. The dude is a stud, catching 7 of Campbells 12 TDs, and has almost 600 yards for the year. Call him a start.

I can say that if you have the ‘Skins ST/DEF, this may be a good week to start them, especially if the weather turns crappy.