Don't Be a Tool

The Magic Formula

Each year Kevin and I struggle to describe one of the most important aspects of fantasy football. Like Sir Isaac Newton and Albert Einstein before us, we attempt to ask the appropriate questions to define some of life’s most basic truths. Here are some examples:

Newton
Truth: What goes up must come down.
Question: Why?

Einstein
Truth: Even light bends to the will of gravity.
Question: Why?

Lyle
Truth: Running Backs are the most valuable players in Fantasy Football.
Question: Why?

The following article is an attempt to answer that question. If you need no proof and feel like trusting us with your fantasy football careers, read no more than the following line:

Draft Running Backs first. Note: The word “Backs” is plural.

Now, for the rest of you who need a little more coaxing, this isn’t going to feel good. It’s not going to be easy, you’ll probably need to read it a few times, and many of you will insist on arguing with me for a while before you get it. However, once you wrap your head around this, you’ll be a better man(or woman) because of it. Trust me…

The formula’s basic principal is this: Some positions are more valuable than others.

So, you’re already saying “No s#!% Sherlock, tell me something I don’t know”. Don’t worry, we’re getting to that.

For the sake of simplicity, and our sanity, let’s agree that TEs, Ks, and DEFs don’t even belong in the mix. Anyone who targets one of those in the first several rounds is asking for trouble, and coincidentally, is free to join any money league I’m in, ever. That leaves just QBs, RBs, and WRs. We’ve all seen these get drafted in the first round, so this seems like a good place to start.

The Breakdown:
Using the TFFG scoring system which is pretty standard and can be seen here.

Top 5 QBs:			Top 5 RBs:				Top 5 WRs:
Rank	Player	Total Points		Rank	Player	Total Points		Rank	Player	Total Points
1	P. Manning	341		1	L. Tomlinson	514		1	M. Harrison	239
2	D. Brees	304		2	L. Johnson	413		2	L. Evans	226
3	M. Bulger	281		3	S. Jackson	406		3	C. Johnson	222
4	M. Vick	267		4	F. Gore	331		4	T. Owens	221
5	C. Palmer	259		5	W. Parker	321		5	R. Wayne	217

With this we can deduce that RBs are #1 followed by QBs and WRs respectively, Right?. And based on that we can say that the positions most valuable in order are: RB, QB, WR, Right? And based on the fact that Manning scored 341 points, we can say his proper draft position would have been 4th overall (just ahead of Gore), Right? – WRONG!

At this point you’re probably thinking “Manning scored more points than Gore, so he should have been drafted higher.” This line of thinking could not be more skewed. The only thing we can safely say is that there is a huge point difference between the positions. However, basing your decisions on this alone is where a lot of people get into trouble. So what’s a budding young fantasy player to do? This is where the magic formula comes into play. You see, it’s not Manning vs. Gore you should be worried about, It’s Manning vs. JP Losman. Let me explain.

First, let’s look at the mid tier guys. Positions 11 – 15.

11 -15 QBs:				11 -15 RBs:				11 -15 WRs:
Rank	Player	Total Points		Rank	Player	Total Points		Rank	Player	Total Points
11	E. Manning	199		11	L. Betts	223		11	T.J. Houshmandzadah	189
12	J.P. Losman	192		12	D. McAllister	218		12	M. Colston	188
13	T. Romo	191		13	A. Green	218		13	L. Coles	184
14	S. McNair	182		14	T. Henry	215		14	D. Jackson	182
15	B. Roethlisberger	182		15	T. Jones	203		15	A. Johnson	174

Again the trend continues. RBs scored more than QBs who scored more than WRs. However, something interesting is happening at this level. The players’ point totals are nearly even. But, if we start to look at the point difference for the respective positions, something even more interesting emerges.

P. Manning (341) vs. J.P. Losman (192): Difference: 149pts
L. Johnson (413 using L.T. doesn’t seem fair) vs. D. McAllister (218): Difference: 195pts
M. Harrison (239) vs. M. Colston (188): 51pts

What does this mean? It means passing on a RB in the first round will cost you about 200pts depending on your draft position, while passing on a QB will cost you about 150pts. You should also notice that WRs are a dime a dozen and that waiting on them is not a big deal. We’ll get to them in a second. In the mean time let me explain what we just discovered in more detail.

I’m going to make a bold statement. I’d rather draft Gore and McAllister than Manning and McAllister.
Manning + McAllister = 559pts
Gore + Mcallister = 549pts

Wait, what’s this? It’s clear that drafting Manning is the better choice? Not so fast! That would be true if we only started those two individuals, but we know that we need a full team. So lets see how this draft would effect each team in the later rounds. For this demo, I’ll be using Average Draft Positions (ADP) from antsports.com and fantasyfootballcalculator.com. You’ll see waiting just one round for your RB takes a toll.

Team A:
1) Manning (341)
2) McAllister (218)
3) T. Jones (203)
4) M. Colston (188)
5) L. Evans (226)
Total: 1176

Team B:
1) Gore (331)
2) McAllister (218)
3) R. Wayne (217)
4) D. Brees (304)
5) L. Evans (226)
Total: 1296

Even though these guys have similar teams, and both made excellent picks within the first five rounds, taking Manning cost Team A 120pts. Why? I’m glad you asked. Because when you draft Manning you are passing on a RB position that you must fill. You are guaranteeing that your RBs will score less points. And as we saw in the first chart, RBs score more points than any other position. It’s a negative equity move. Team B only lost 37pts by passing on Manning and drafting Brees, while they gained well over 100pts at the RB position. Plus, as an added bonus, waiting till round 4 to grab a QB allowed Team B to nab a Top 5 WR. Even if Team B had J.P. Losman for QB, they still would have scored 1184pts and be ahead in this draft, and Losman’s ADP is a whopping round 13! This is the magic formula at work.

So, have we found it? Is this the answer to the question? Sort of. All we can say at this point is, “The difference between RBs in early rounds and RBs in later rounds if far greater than any other position, and taking a QB before filling those positions prevents us from capitalizing on that.” But, what about other positions and the middle rounds? Take a deep breath, and let’s move on to part 2.

This entry was posted on Sunday, August 12th, 2007 at 9:30 pm and is filed under Lyle's Lounge. You can follow any responses to this entry through the RSS 2.0 feed. Responses are currently closed, but you can trackback from your own site.