Don't Be a Tool

The WR Debate
The difference that we were speaking of in the first article has a name, it’s called “Standard Deviation”. Statistic nuts and mathematicians have been using it for years. Feel free to read the wikipedia page if you feel like punishing yourself for a while. The reason I bring this up, is it was the subject of a recent email I received. An excerpt follows:

Lyle

I’m a big fan of the show and have often followed your advice but this
year I decided to do some testing related specifically to the idea of
drafting Rb, Rb, Wr,.

To do this I used last years stats and fantasy numbers for each
offensive position and team defense (basic yahoo scoring). On the
podcast, when you talk about the difference between the top player and
the next best player what your talking about is Average Deviation and
Standard Deviation.

The positions with the highest standard deviation would then be the
most risk and so on. The results are as follow:

QB
160.76 average
34 count (number of players used)
177.5 median
70.75 Stard Deviation
5005.16 Variance
58.32 Average Deviation

RB
127.07 average
57 count
108 median
78.68 Stard Deviation
6190.28 Variance
59.83 Average Deviation

WR
93.63 average
83 count
82 median
46.04 Stard Deviation
2119.31 Variance
38.79 Average Deviation

TE
57.03 average
36 count
47.5 median
33.85 Stard Deviation
1145.80 Variance
28.26 Average Deviation

DEF
132.09 average
32 count
129 median
32.80 Stard Deviation
1076.15 Variance
22.17 Average Deviation

Based on this analysis you are correct value RB’s the most during
draft. Second should be QB, then WR followed by TE and lastly DEF.
Thus it would follow to draft RB, RB, QB, RB/WR

I’d like to hear your thoughts on this

David

What’s this? Have I been wrong all along? Have I been misleading people in recommending WRs over QBs in the early rounds? This email had me questioning the very foundation of my fantasy strategy. And then it hit me. This statement would be true if all QBs were created equal. They’re not. You see, Manning (and probably many others) will not be available in the third, fourth, and fifth rounds, so it’s not accurate to include their stats in this example. We have to use new numbers from only the available players left in the draft. We have to re-apply the magic formula. Let’s see what happens.

Rounds 4 and 5. Both teams need a QB and a WR.

Available QBs	Total Points		Available WRs	Total Points
J. Kitna	214		J. Walker	199
P. Rivers	212		T.J. Housh	189
B. Favre	200		M. Colston	188
E. Manning	199		L. Coles	184
J.P. Losman	192		A. Johnson	174
T. Romo	191		A. Bolden	174
S. McNair	182		P. Burress	170
B. Roth	182		J. Galloway	168
V. Young	181		T. Glenn	155
Difference	33		Difference	44

Team A:
4) J. Kitna (214)
5) T. Glenn (155)
Total: 369

Team B:
4) J. Walker (199)
5) V. Young (181)
Total: 380

Team B is still in the lead. As you can see, the talent level begins to drop off dramatically in the WR Category while the QBs stabalize a bit. You might be saying “Yeah, but they’re so close, why does it matter?”. The answer is quite simple. Most fantasy leagues force you to start two WRs and only one QB. So, the WRs account for 2/8ths or 1/4th of your team while QBs only account for 1/8th. So, because WRs account for 25% of your starting field each week, it’s even more important to nail at least one of those spots in your draft.

The trend doesn’t last long
In the later rounds, It becomes clear that the QBs start to out-weigh the WRs
Rounds 5, 6, and 7.

Available QBs	Total Points		Available WRs	Total Points
J. Kitna	214		L. Coles	184
P. Rivers	212		D. Jackson	182
B. Favre	200		A. Johnson	174
E. Manning	199		P. Burress	170
J.P. Losman	192		J. Galloway	168
T. Romo	191		T. Glenn	155
S. Mcnair	182		R. Brown	149
B. Roethlisberger	182		H. Ward	147
V. Young	181		J. Cotchery	147
R. Grossman	175		S. Moss	144
C. Pennington	173		B. Edwards	140
J. Delhomme	159		D. Henderson	131
A. Smith	154		C. Henry	129
M. Hasselbeck	152		B. Berrian	129
D. Carr	140		M. Muhammad	125
Difference	74pts		Difference	59pts

Bringing it all together
“Lyle, stop my brain is hurting!” I know, I know… Almost done…
What does this all mean? The bottom line is, you should draft 2 RBs first and, depending on who’s available, draft a WR in the 3rd round. Now, obviously if Manning is available in the second, go for it! If Bulger or Brees are available in the third or the fourth, grab one of them. Otherwise, start drafting WRs and wait till the 5th to consider another QB.

In writing this article and trying to grasp this complex concept I realized something quite interesting. The question most people ask when drafting is “How well will this player perform?” or (worded differently) “How many points will I get for drafting this person?”. The question we should be asking is “How many points am I losing by drafting this person?” The magic formula prevents us from losing points by helping us draft for the right position at the right time.

This entry was posted on Sunday, August 12th, 2007 at 9:29 pm and is filed under Lyle's Lounge. You can follow any responses to this entry through the RSS 2.0 feed. Responses are currently closed, but you can trackback from your own site.