Overvalued, Undervalued, and Sleepers
Note: The following isn’t your average list. Anyone can tell you that Donald Brown or Knowshon Moreno is a sleeper, or that LT is on his way out. In the following article I dig deep to find the unpopular choices that could make or break your draft.
Overvalued:
Let someone else draft these guys.
Larry Fitzgerald WR, ARI (ADP-1.07): Anquan Boldin being in camp could spell lesser numbers for Fitz. When the two played during the regular season last year, Boldin caught 13 more passes and scored nearly twice as many TDs. Couple this with the fact that the Cardinals will likely pass less often this season (they threw the ball more last year than any other team, their receivers caught more passes than any team since 1995, and they drafted a bruising RB with their #1 pick), and it’s hard to see him putting up the dominating numbers of late 2008. Still, I’m not pushing Fitz’s value down too much, but drafting him #1 at WR seems too steep considering similar value might be found a round later.
Michael Turner RB, ATL (ADP-1.04): Turner is no doubt one of the best backs in the league, but there are a few factors suggesting he is overvalued in most leagues. He carried the ball a league high 376 times last year. Even coach Mike Smith said “We know he can’t sustain 370 carries over a number of years, we have to reduce the load we put on him last year”. He’s also not much of a pass catcher. Turner had only 6 catches for 41 yards last season. Sounds to me like Jerious Norwood could see more playing time as relief and play 90% of passing downs.
Tony Romo QB, DAL (ADP-5.05): Only Jon Kitna has turned the ball over more in the last 2 years and he just lost one of his best weapons. I don’t see Romo being anywhere near the top 10 for QBs this season.
Lee Evans WR, BUF (ADP-6.09): This might seem obvious given the addition of Terrell Owens, and Evans’ lack luster performance the past few years. But, I think even the late 6th round is too much to pay for Mr. Evans. Only one time in the last eight years has a WR playing on the other side of Owens totaled more than 800 yards, none have scored more than 7 TDs.
Undervalued:
These unsung heroes could be the key to your draft.
Pierre Thomas RB, NO (ADP-3.11): Maybe not in a PPR, but in a standard scoring league, Thomas should be selected before Reggie Bush (ADP-2.09). Thomas is bigger, more physical back, who will likely steal most of the goal-line carries. Add this to the fact that Bush’s knee isn’t 100% and has been a bit injury prone, and it’s an easy call to move Thomas ahead of him on my board.
Jamaal Charles RB, KC (ADP-12.09): While Larry Johnson has the starting gig locked down, he has had some injury and off the field problems lately. Charles is younger, much faster, and a far better receiver. It’s likely he will see significant playing time, even if Johnson is healthy. A late round flier on him could pay dividends if LJ continues his slide.
Domenik Hixon WR, NYG (ADP-11.11): Steve Smith is more of a slot receiver and 1st round selection Hakeem Nicks will need time to develop. That makes Hixon the #1 guy in New York by default. While I don’t expect to see Plaxico-type numbers from him. He did average 4 catches for 55 yards with 2 TDs when Plax was out last year.
Demetrius Williams WR, BAL (ADP-13.01): Sure he’s a #3 and he had an Achilles surgery that sidelined him for most of last season, but he’s behind Mark Clayton and the ageless Derrick Mason and he’s bigger and faster than both of those guys. He’s also added 5 pounds of muscle and seems serious about making a run at a starting gig.
Sleepers:
These guys are going mostly undrafted. They may be worth a late flier.
Jeff Garcia QB, OAK (ADP-N/A): Oakland may be committed to playing JaMarcus Russell for the rest of his life based on his salary, but if he does end up working his way to the bench, Garcia could be a more than serviceable option at QB. Oakland has one of the youngest offenses in the league and they may have the fastest pair of WRs in the NFL (Darrius Heyward Bay and Johnnie Lee Higgins).
Daunte Culpepper QB, DET (ADP-N/A): I know, 2004 called and they want their QB back (insert “Prices Right” fail here). Consider the fact that they have one of the best WRs in the NFL. Also consider that the Lions have added some upgraded receiving options with Maurice Morris, Brandon Pettigrew, Bryant Johnson, and Dennis Northcutt. Plus, Culpepper is in much better shape coming into camp and Matthew Stafford probably won’t see any action until late in the year. As far as fliers go, I don’t know if they get any better than this.
Chris Brown RB, HOU (ADP-N/A): Ryan Moats, rookies Arian Foster and Jeremiah Johnson, and Chris Brown are all competing to back up Steve Slaton. Brown has cracked 1,000 yards in a single season and was a staple of the Tennessee backfield until multiple injuries landed him on the IR. He’s clearly ahead of the pack for this position and there is a good chance he’ll see a lot of time around the goal-line. Slaton scored on only 4 of 21 carries inside the 5-yard line last year, worst amongst RBs.
Brent Celek TE, PHI (ADP-N/A): Celek showed flashes of brilliance last season, and has now locked up the starting gig in Philadelphia’s pass happy offense. That alone is enough to justify a late round selection.
Dark Horse Sleepers:
You may have never heard of these guys. Watch the waiver wire or spend a very late pick on one of these guys to stick at the end of your bench.
Earl Bennett WR, CHI: Someone has to catch the ball in Chicago. Devon Hester and Greg Olson should account for most of the production, but don’t rule out Bennett who caught more than 75 passes three years in a row at Vanderbilt, one of those seasons with Jay Cutler as his QB.
James Davis RB, CLE: Jamal Lewis will be 30 before opening day, he’s had multiple surgeries on his knees, and he averaged just 3.6 a carry last year. Davis, their 6th round selection, looks to be the #2 who might see increased playing time if Lewis continues to struggle.
Travis Beckum TE, NYG: He was college football’s most productive TE until he missed all of last season with injuries. The Giants liked him enough to spend an early 3rd round pick on him, and the lack of pass catchers will certainly open up opportunities on this team.
Rashad Jennings RB, JAX: Maurice Jones-Drew isn’t built to carry the ball 350+ times in a season. The Jaguars are going to need to spell him at some point. This 230 pound bruiser they selected in the 7th round is a likely candidate for short-yardage and goal line situations.