Don't Be a Tool

Dolphbucs · 2010-07-27 13:52:57

It has often been brought up by those that do not understand or believe in the Magic Formula, that QB's and WR's are more valuable in some leagues than RB's .... but is that true ? The following does not really apply to the Magic Formula because it is more about the dropoff of talent than which position scores more.

The assertion is that QB's and WR's should be given draft priority over RB's because QB's and even in some leagues WR's score more points in a season than RB's. While this might be true, the point that I think gets lost with this rationale is that most leagues are HTH, not Points only.

If your league is points only, then the fact that, depending on your scoring system, QB's or WR's may outscore RB's over the course of the season could be very important. However, in a HTH league I believe that what you are looking for is consistent point production week to week ... you want to be able to say " this player I can count on for X # of points each and every week" because that gives you the best chance of assembling a squad that will compete well HTH.

I don't know the actual numbers ( anyone ? ) but my gut tells me that QB's and WR's are more spotty. Looking at QB's first, how often do QB's have 300 yd passing days as opposed to RB's having 100 yd rushing days ? Granted a QB that does not have at least 1 passing TD each game is considered not of FF calibre, but I suspect that the fact that in most leagues RB's get 1 pt for every 10 yds rushing compensates. Let's say that an "average" day for a decent RB is 90 yds and 1 TD ... that would equate to 15 pts ( using 1 pt/10 yds and 6 pts/TD ). Note: I use the term "average" to mean the performance you can expect the player to have at least 75% of the time ... not the total points for the season divided by the number of games ... hence the quotes. Now let's say that an "average" day for a QB is 225 yds and 1 TD that would equate to 15 pts using 1 pt/25 yds passing and 6 pts/TD. But ... as many have pointed out, most leagues now count a passing TD as 4, making that "average" QB performance now worth only 13 pts.

Now, look at WR vs RB. Let's say you have 1/2 pt per reception. Using my above definition, I would say an "average" WR performance any given week would be about 5 receptions for 75 yds and a TD or ( using 1pt per 10 yds receiving ) 15 pts.

Granted, WR's and QB's may "blow up" a few games a year to increase their numerical average for a season, and give you a few blow out wins during the season, but margin of victory only comes into play in tiebreakers and helps you little if you have fewer HTH wins for the season. My theory is that, on the whole, RB's would perform at or above the "average" ( my definition above ) on any specific week more often than QB's or WR's .... thus RB's would still be more desirable than QB's or WR's because their consistency of point production is better than QB or WR.

Again, I have not totally crunched all the numbers, and this would only apply to leagues that start 1 QB, 2 WR's and 2 RB's ( with the possible addition of a flex ) but I think it warrants discussion and if anyone could crunch the numbers and/or find stats that consider this that would be great.

MojoX · 2010-07-27 14:48:05

Oh boy....here we go, again...

Devo49 · 2010-07-27 14:58:06

This requires much more time and research to answer properly, which I will do later. I did just want to mention that in most stamdard leagues (ESPN, yahoo, etc.).QBs regularly outscore RBs and everyone else and have a disproportionately high representation in the top 20 scorers list.

However, b/c you only have one in your starting lineup, they can be devalued despite their high point totals.

I will be back to try to answer the rest of the question when I get a chance to crunch the numbers. (on my cell ATM)

m4ch1n3 · 2010-07-27 14:59:19

In a lot of leagues QBs do score more points than RBs (they touch the ball every offensive play, Wildcat excluded).

The reason why RBs should be more valued though is because if you compare the total points from a Top 5 QB and a 6-10 RB against a 6-10 QB and a Top 5 RB, usually the drop off from a Top 5 RB vs a 6-10 RB > the drop from a Top 5 QB and a 6-10 QB

Same principal for the WRs, but generally speaking WRs score much fewer points than RBs or QBs

drock · 2010-07-27 15:21:17

You sure are trying to get the community riled up aren't you!

I have already made my point, which in summary is when starting 1QB the dropoff from the 1st to 12th QB is not much. When you can play 2QBs, QBs are the highest value since the dropoff is huge from 1 to 24 and the well runs dry quickly.

onthewarpath · 2010-07-27 15:43:24

Sorry if this looks bad, I don't know how to attach things, never had to.

Ok, so this was an imperfect method, but I took your semi-arbitrary settings (Avg day for QB = 13, RB/WR = 15) and analyzed the % chance of meeting or exceeding that mark during last season. Essentially this is a consistency ranking table, and it shows that RBs have the lowest slope, meaning (no surprise) they are the most consistent among the three groups. NOTE: "Rank" refers to rankings based on total FPs scored from last year.

What is important to pay attention to is the overall % chance as you get towards the end of the list. Notice that the 12th most consistent QB (Eli) has a 56.25% chance to have an average day, while the 12th most consistent RB (Grant) or WR (Ochocinco) have a 31.25% and 25% chance to have an average day.

What this reveal are two things we already have heard: 1) QB consistency is available deep into the rankings, and 2) The rate of decline in consistency is greater in WRs and QBs than RBs.

Rank QB    % with 13 Rank RB % with 15 Rank WR % with 15
1 Rodgers 93.75 2 AP    62.5 1 AJ    37.5
4 Manning 87.5    1 CJ    56.25 2 Moss    31.25
2 Schaub 75    4 Rice    56.25 3 Austin 31.25
3 Brees 68.75 5 Gore    50 4 Djax    31.25
5 Romo 68.75 2 MJD    43.75 6 Wayne 31.25
7 Favre 68.75 6 TJ    43.75 8 Marshall 31.25
6 Brady 68.75 12 Jstew    43.75 9 Welker 31.25
8 Roeth 68.75 13 Mendy    43.75 11 VJax    31.25
11 McNabb 68.75 9 Charles    37.5 5 Rwhite 25
9 Rivers 62.5    13 Dwill    37.5 7 Fitz    25
12 Orton 62.5    15 Benson    37.5 10 Rice    25
10 Eli    56.25 8 Grant    31.25 13 Ocho    25
14 Warner 56.25 11 Sjax    31.25 17 SSmithC 25
15 Garrard 56.25 10 Addai    25 18 Mason 25
13 Cutler 50    16 Fjax    25 14 Colston 18.75
16 Campbell 50    17 Moreno    25 15 Ward    18.75
18 Palmer 50    20 Harrison    25 19 Jennings 18.75
17 Flacco 37.5    7 Rwill    18.75 12 SsmithNY 12.5
19 Ryan    37.5    18 Forte    18.75 16 Holmes 12.5
20 Hassel 37.5    19 LDT    18.75 20 Meachem 12.5

Chicofanatic · 2010-07-27 15:45:26

I play in a league that scores all touchdowns 7 points and anything over 40 yards is 14. I had CJ and A. rodgers on my team and Rodgers scored more points than C. Johnson of the titans. These two won my league for me. And in my league I can play two qbs. It is not uncommon to get two top ten rbs in the second and third round. I took Rodgers first and got cj in the second round of a snake draft.

foxforce5 · 2010-07-27 16:21:37

I'm sure those of you who have been on the forum for a long time have discussed it before, but I can't resist asking a question related to this thread. I think I understand the logic behind the magic formula. Talent definitely drops off much more steeply among RBs and WRs than among QBs. My question concerns whether it makes a difference if your league gives 6 points per passing touchdown instead of the usual 4. Does this difference in the scoring system matter enough to justify going after an elite QB in the first or second round?

onthewarpath · 2010-07-27 16:31:34

foxforce5 wrote:
I'm sure those of you who have been on the forum for a long time have discussed it before, but I can't resist asking a question related to this thread. I think I understand the logic behind the magic formula. Talent definitely drops off much more steeply among RBs and WRs than among QBs. My question concerns whether it makes a difference if your league gives 6 points per passing touchdown instead of the usual 4. Does this difference in the scoring system matter enough to justify going after an elite QB in the first or second round?

Nope. The only situation where that would matter would be if there were QBs scoring 5-6 TDs a game, and thus outscoring other QBs by leaps and bounds. The key there is "outscoring other QBs".

Chris Johnson, Adrian Peterson, MJD, and Ray Rice are all ranked very high because they are predicted to outscore [insert 8th round RB] by hundreds upon hundreds of points. For QBs, Aaron Rodgers or any other top QB is not slated to outscore their competition by that much.

drock · 2010-07-27 18:24:52

foxforce5 wrote:
I'm sure those of you who have been on the forum for a long time have discussed it before, but I can't resist asking a question related to this thread. I think I understand the logic behind the magic formula. Talent definitely drops off much more steeply among RBs and WRs than among QBs. My question concerns whether it makes a difference if your league gives 6 points per passing touchdown instead of the usual 4. Does this difference in the scoring system matter enough to justify going after an elite QB in the first or second round?

Refer to the discussion here which directly answers this question:
http://www.thefantasyfootballguys.com/f … p?id=40143

foxforce5 · 2010-07-27 20:39:58

Thanks for the pointer, drock. I really need to pay better attention!

Dolphbucs · 2010-07-28 10:04:23

Just a couple of things that some of you have missed.

First of all, I did start out by saying " The following does not really apply to the Magic Formula because it is more about the dropoff of talent than which position scores more." That was intended to mean that the MF is more about the dropoff of talent, not the theory I brought up.

I really did not mean this point to be an argument for or against value drafting ( including the MF ). I was simply trying to point out that the assertion that "QB's and WR's score more points than RB's in some leagues" may be misleading because in a HTH league it is the consistant points you can expect each week that really matters, not the total points a player has scores over the course of the season. It is my theory that QB's and WR's might have a tendency to have a few ( maybe 2 or 3 ) huge games and that skews the supposed advantage of them "scoring more points"

Secondly, I stated in the last paragraph of the OP "this would only apply to leagues that start 1 QB, 2 WR's and 2 RB's ( with the possible addition of a flex )". Obviously there are plenty of "non-standard" leagues out there that throw many, if not all, theories out the window.

Lastly, thanks onthewarpath ( although , like you said, it is pretty hard to read LOL ). Your calculations were exactly the type of data I was curious about. Again, I'm NOT sure about this .... just an interesting thought I had that I figured I would throw out there for discussion.

xlledx · 2010-07-29 14:49:06

I dont think theres much point in trying to argue the magic formula. Most people just play fantasy cuz its fun, not because they want to analyze line graphs.

onthewarpath · 2010-07-29 15:00:31

xlledx wrote:
I dont think theres much point in trying to argue the magic formula. Most people just play fantasy cuz its fun, not because they want to analyze line graphs.

http://sphotos.ak.fbcdn.net/hphotos-ak- … 4377_n.jpg

Awesome. Lay off us nerds though, we got it hard enough already.

Dolphbucs · 2010-07-29 19:15:54

xlledx wrote:
I dont think theres much point in trying to argue the magic formula.

*** sigh *** For the third time .... this thread is NOT about the Magic Formula.

Salty Dog · 2010-07-30 23:15:21

Xlledx's graph might the greatest/funniest thing I've ever seen on these forums.....ROTFLMAO

Dolphbucs · 2010-07-31 13:28:00

Damn ... meant to give props last post ... nice xlledx!!!

Don't Be a Tool

#1 2010-07-27 13:52:57

Do QB's and WR's really score more than RB's in some leagues ?

#2 2010-07-27 14:48:05

Re: Do QB's and WR's really score more than RB's in some leagues ?

#3 2010-07-27 14:58:06

Re: Do QB's and WR's really score more than RB's in some leagues ?

#4 2010-07-27 14:59:19

Re: Do QB's and WR's really score more than RB's in some leagues ?

#5 2010-07-27 15:21:17

Re: Do QB's and WR's really score more than RB's in some leagues ?

#6 2010-07-27 15:43:24

Re: Do QB's and WR's really score more than RB's in some leagues ?

#7 2010-07-27 15:45:26

Re: Do QB's and WR's really score more than RB's in some leagues ?

#8 2010-07-27 16:21:37

Re: Do QB's and WR's really score more than RB's in some leagues ?

#9 2010-07-27 16:31:34

Re: Do QB's and WR's really score more than RB's in some leagues ?

foxforce5 wrote:

#10 2010-07-27 18:24:52

Re: Do QB's and WR's really score more than RB's in some leagues ?

foxforce5 wrote:

#11 2010-07-27 20:39:58

Re: Do QB's and WR's really score more than RB's in some leagues ?

#12 2010-07-28 10:04:23

Re: Do QB's and WR's really score more than RB's in some leagues ?

#13 2010-07-29 14:49:06

Re: Do QB's and WR's really score more than RB's in some leagues ?

#14 2010-07-29 15:00:31

Re: Do QB's and WR's really score more than RB's in some leagues ?

xlledx wrote:

#15 2010-07-29 19:15:54

Re: Do QB's and WR's really score more than RB's in some leagues ?

xlledx wrote:

#16 2010-07-30 23:15:21

Re: Do QB's and WR's really score more than RB's in some leagues ?

#17 2010-07-31 13:28:00

Re: Do QB's and WR's really score more than RB's in some leagues ?

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