Don't Be a Tool

TheSoss wrote:

Kevin wrote:

I think we're all arguing different levels of the same side of the point.

The basics are these:

If you think Justin Forsett will finish the season as the #4 RB in the NFL, it is not necessary to pick him as the #4 RB in your draft...in fact it would be downright foolish.  You can certainly safely wait a few rounds to snag him. 

Conversely...

If you think SJAX is going to finish the season as the #4 RB in fantasy, and you have the #4 pick, you'd better grab him there, because he won't be around for pick #21.

It's all relative.  You may end up losing Forsett to some guy who jumps the gun in round 3, but that's the risk you run.

Exactly. I'm pretty sure that's not the argument Dolf and Triton were making, because they would grab Forcett there (see the Ricky Williams example).

OK, something with the way Kevin posted that comment about Forsett clicked. The thing I've been missing is that I assume that my rankings would be correct and that the rest of my league would all be thinking the same as I, at the same time I've been saying Soss and Fuzzy assume that others in their league are all using Value drafting and think as they do.  The truth is neither is entirely true and you have to temper both raw rankings and ADP with the other.

Fair enough Soss?

But I would still like to see you in action in a league with Kevin and Lyle to see how your strategies fare against theirs.

Last edited by Dolphbucs (2010-07-24 23:52:39)

You seem to be missing the point of my last comment .

I'm saying that I ( me ) was generalizing your position to the extreme, implying that you assumed that everyone in your league was using your method and that I was making the very mistake I accused you of to the other side.  I was NOT saying that you ARE assuming anything. Hence the statement " The truth is, neither is entirely true "

Comprende ?

Last edited by Dolphbucs (2010-07-25 13:59:44)

Fuzzy Dunlop wrote:

AaronW wrote:

You are leaving one key factor out from last years stats and that is that Williams didn't play in 3 and half games, whereas Stewart played all 16.  Williams put up those numbers while sharing the carries with Stewart.  Stewart had 560 of his 1133 rushing yards and 5 of his 11 tds during the 4games Williams was out.  From a fantasy point per game standpoint I will go ahead and draft Williams in the early second and you can have Stewart.

That's fine.  I feel very confident that whoever I get in the 2nd round plus Jonathan Stewart will put up the same, if not better, numbers than DeAngello Williams and whoever you pick in the 5th round.

Are you implying that jStew is going in the 5th? I'm pretty sure he's going in the 3rd in most of the mocks I've done...I would have to go double check tho.

AaronW wrote:

I am going to try and simplify for you the point that soss is trying to get across.  Drafting a player in rd 1 when you know you can get them in rd 4 is like paying $25 for a cheeseburger at McDonalds.  The price is up there for you to see it, you could get it for a $1 and still have $24 leftover to buy some fries and a milk shake and even see a movie.  But because you love McD cheeseburgers you just blindly give them $25, now all you're left with is just a cheeseburger and McD just made a huge profit off of you.

Your example is useless, I understand the argument that Fuzzyt and Soss are making

I wouldn't be "blindly paying $25 for a cheeseburger". If I've done my homework and realized that this is the best damn cheeseburger in the world, AND McDonald's only has one cheeseburger available, I don't want any of the guys in line in front of me or behind me take that cheeseburger. You also need to suppose that one of the guys in the line around me has done the same intense studying of cheesburgers that I have and realizes it has the same value I put it with.

Then comes the principle of "supply and demand". Suppose everyone in my league likes the same guy. There's no way in hell that guys getting to his ADP, I don't care what site we're drafting on. Because a lot of us here play on TFFG leagues, a lot of us think the same way. Why? Because we all have similar fantasy experiences and strategies!

Even though there are leagues I play in with guys outside of TFFG, I still have many times where guys I thought I could get a deal on are gone two or three rounds before I had them going or me drafting them. Did that guy reach? Yeah, but because he knew if he didn't take that player there I might have taken them a round or two later. It just works like that. Soss and Fuzzy seem to be implying that everyone is going to go by the magazine rankings AND that they are the only freethinking individuals who play FF, or else they believe that nobody is as clever as them and therefore are not likely to think as highly of a certain player as they are. There is only so much FF information that can go around. And lots of people can draw the same conclusions as you.

Triton1220 wrote:

AaronW wrote:

I am going to try and simplify for you the point that soss is trying to get across.  Drafting a player in rd 1 when you know you can get them in rd 4 is like paying $25 for a cheeseburger at McDonalds.  The price is up there for you to see it, you could get it for a $1 and still have $24 leftover to buy some fries and a milk shake and even see a movie.  But because you love McD cheeseburgers you just blindly give them $25, now all you're left with is just a cheeseburger and McD just made a huge profit off of you.

Your example is useless, I understand the argument that Fuzzyt and Soss are making

I wouldn't be "blindly paying $25 for a cheeseburger". If I've done my homework and realized that this is the best damn cheeseburger in the world, AND McDonald's only has one cheeseburger available, I don't want any of the guys in line in front of me or behind me take that cheeseburger. You also need to suppose that one of the guys in the line around me has done the same intense studying of cheesburgers that I have and realizes it has the same value I put it with.

Then comes the principle of "supply and demand". Suppose everyone in my league likes the same guy. There's no way in hell that guys getting to his ADP, I don't care what site we're drafting on. Because a lot of us here play on TFFG leagues, a lot of us think the same way. Why? Because we all have similar fantasy experiences and strategies!

Even though there are leagues I play in with guys outside of TFFG, I still have many times where guys I thought I could get a deal on are gone two or three rounds before I had them going or me drafting them. Did that guy reach? Yeah, but because he knew if he didn't take that player there I might have taken them a round or two later. It just works like that. Soss and Fuzzy seem to be implying that everyone is going to go by the magazine rankings AND that they are the only freethinking individuals who play FF, or else they believe that nobody is as clever as them and therefore are not likely to think as highly of a certain player as they are. There is only so much FF information that can go around. And lots of people can draw the same conclusions as you.

When you're arguing against someone else’s point try not to leave out crucial facts or data in your argument, unless you work for the media, than more power to you.  If you refer to my initial argument, the cheeseburger in my example was just a hypothetical to show how market value plays a major role in fantasy football.  Now you are correct in pointing out the fact that there are some major differences between McDonald’s cheeseburgers and fantasy football, one you left out is how much better cheeseburgers are to eat especially with bbq sauce.  But the point I was making and the part you left out was a simple analogy of cheeseburgers to Ray Rice and the value I gained by waiting until rd 4 to draft him last year as opposed to overpaying and drafting him in rd 1 even though he was a higher rated rb on my list than the player I drafted. 

Would you have drafted Ray Rice in rd 1 last year KNOWING his price at the time was going for around a 6th rd pick even if you thought he was the BEST RB AROUND?  Of course not because you did your homework and knew that Rice like the price of a cheeseburger at McDonald's was not one of the top 10rbs or cheeseburgers on anyones list but yours, which ment he likely was not going in the first couple of rds or for more than a $1 at most locations.  You could pay $25 because of supply and demand, but wouldn't you be making a mistake, when the guy behind you could just drive around the corner to the next McDonalds and buy it for a $1 or go to Burger King and get a whopper.  As in ff you could draft Rice in the first, second or third last year but wouldn't you on avg be making a mistake because for every Ray Rice, are there not 100s of McFaddens or LWhited(other rbs who were not in most peoples top 20s but were drafted earlier than market value because of individual expecatations).  Even last year when I drafted Rice early in the 4th it "was considered a reach at that point", not his true market value (adp).  And I am not arguing that you need to wait until a players adp to draft him, especially if you really like that player, I didn't wait until rd 6 to draft Rice.  The point is though that you can NEVER EVER be CERTAIN about a player(last year MForte, Slaton, LT...).  But one thing you can be certain about is trying to get the best value possible so that you don’t overpay for that player.  Sorry dude no matter how much homework you do this year and how much you love the cheeseburgers at McDonald's they will only be a $1, if you want to pay more that's your WORNG decision(Drafting Forsett in the 1st rd), giving a huge profit to McDonald's (your opponents).  Especially when you can get Ray Rice now for a 1st and Forsett in the 4th.

Last edited by AaronW (2010-07-29 04:09:36)

There were plenty of guys in the first round that had good years. I wouldn't have taken Westbrook, Portis or even Barber last year until late second or preferably the early third. My point remains the same, I'm not comparing cheesburgers to fantasy players I was giving you the example of how most people here know how to determine a players value. You might be different in your asessment thats fine. But I know the value of my "cheeseburgers" before I buy them. I've also taken into account I'd get a better value on the nuggets if I buy them later (lets say they are having a sale, I dunno). However, I plan for that. In addition to knowing the value of the nuggets I know the value of the fries and drink I'm going to get before the nuggets, and I have something on my mind (apple pies anyone?) that I will take should the nuggets not be there.

Now looking at that fantasywise you understand where I'm coming from. Sure, I could have a guy ranked in the top five. But then what does it matter? If I'm not taking him top five then what the hell's the use of putting him there? I'd rather just put him where I think he'll go OR where I would draft him personally, even if its a few rounds before his ADP. I don't want to take the risk of a guy I really want going to a team because I waited too long to take him. Honestly, there have been years where guys have reached 4-5 rounds to get a guy that I was targeting. I was upset and I insulted that team personally, but I suppose it's my own damn fault for letting someone value him a lot more than me. I guess my point is, if I rank a guy number five, that is where I generally would like to take him. There are times where I have a gut instinct to take that player earlier than usual. If that happens I don't sweat it, because it's my fault that I reached and I'm sure I got a pretty good deal.

We really don't disagree here, as it's all a matter of preference, but as I said, if you can rank him lower because of his value and based on where you would draft him why wouldn't you? At least so you have a template of where you'd like to get the value you speak so highly of.

I mean this really started with Stewart being ranked #10 and we said that was rediculous. But only because I know SI has a bad track record of doing that (I've bought or looked at their magazine for the past three years, and to think they call themselves journalists and "experts") and they were doing it based on that they really loved him and realized you could get them later. They really think thats his value too.

And THAT is what my argment was about, not necessarily that Soss, Fuzzy or anybody else "rank players wrong". I see where you guys are coming from, and honestly I have a nasty habit of even when I find something I agree with playing Devil's advocate.

I guess what it comes down to it, I rank according to value based on personal preference (based on a lot of the factors you mentioned) not necessarily how good a players going to do that upcoming year. Obviously I want good players. I don't simply "walk into drafts" but I also don't come armed with 3408490820984 cheatsheets. Maybe one, and knowledge of who and what I'm looking for.

http://bleacherreport.com/articles/4298 … ne-is-best

Here is a run down of the magazines. I have bought a few; but, nothing exciting in any of them.

Here is the Sports Illustrated PDF of their draft magazine.

http://i.cdn.turner.com/si/images/2010/ … aftkit.pdf

CBS has updated information in their draft guide:

http://fantasynews.cbssports.com/fantas … prep-guide