Topic: Keeper Kalculations

I have a league which has 3 keepers (up to 3 years 10% cola/year) and is an auction draft. Over time people have sat on rookies or injured players making them a steal. For example MJD $7.

Assuming others have similar scenarios how do you prepare for the draft knowing top talent is not only off the table but at a cheap price?

It's not as simple as crossing off the players that are gone. You have to also factor in the price of players will be inflated by the fact teams already have top talent but didn't pay top dollar for them. This has the affect of teams having more money then they need so they over pay/out bid the competition for their next highest need.

I was thinking of creating some sort of salary position ranking based on each teams available cap. But this idea is obviously not thought through yet.

suggestions please.
thanks

Re: Keeper Kalculations

You need to use a Keeper Value Formula.

The one that I use for auctions goes as follows.

1) # of teams x team cap = total $$
2) Add total $$ spent on Keepers (Locked in)*
3) Add total value of Keepers (draft sheet value)
4) Total $$ - Value predicted ** = Value left.
5) Total $$ - Total $$ Spent* = Total Money Left
6) Total Money Left / Total Value Left = Draft Inflation Rate
7) Draft Inflation Rate x Auction value projections =  Inflated value of players due to keepers.

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Re: Keeper Kalculations

Example:

So in my league it was like this 13 teams, $260 cap, each team kept 3 players...

1) 13 x 260 = $3380
2) Total spent on Keepers = $587
3) Total value of Keepers (draft sheet value) = $676
4) Total $$ ($3380) - value predicted ($676) = $2704
5) Total $$ ($3380) - Total spent (587) = $2793
6) Money left ($2793) / Value Left ($2704) = 1.032914    (go as far as you feel helps)
7) Draft inflation rate (1.033) x each players value on a draft sheet = their infation value


The number will change depending on your league and how long players can be kept. In this league you can only keep players for 2 years and their costs increase by $10 each year so value kept is low. In your case your value kept will be higher if people like MJD are $7 and their auction value is around 4-5x that depending on what your cap is so your inflation rate will more than likely be much higher.

Anyway that is how that works. Good luck plugging your #s in, hope it helps.

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Re: Keeper Kalculations

Very well done Beaver.

Re: Keeper Kalculations

thanks for the tip. If my numbers are correct we have a very high rate of inflation. break out the Jimmy Carter gas lines.


Total cap              1800
spent on keepers    348
Draft Sheet Value    862
Value Left              938
Money Left          1452
Draft Inflation rate 1.548

Last edited by leftcranium (2012-08-18 16:37:23)

Re: Keeper Kalculations

leftcranium wrote:

thanks for the tip. If my numbers are correct we have a very high rate of inflation. break out the Jimmy Carter gas lines.


Total cap              1800
spent on keepers    348
Draft Sheet Value    862
Value Left              938
Money Left          1452
Draft Inflation rate 1.548

Sounds like you need to bump up the 10 interest rate to keep inflation down.

Re: Keeper Kalculations

xlledx wrote:
leftcranium wrote:

thanks for the tip. If my numbers are correct we have a very high rate of inflation. break out the Jimmy Carter gas lines.


Total cap              1800
spent on keepers    348
Draft Sheet Value    862
Value Left              938
Money Left          1452
Draft Inflation rate 1.548

Sounds like you need to bump up the 10 interest rate to keep inflation down.

That is a 55% inflation rate. So if you take ESPNS auction value for say...
Ray Rice @ $55 x 1.548 = $85 draft day cost
Or
Reggie Bush @ $14 x 1.548 = $22 draft day cost

Now compare that to the MJD at $7 to see the true value of the keepers.

This tool is great if you just make a column on your excel spread sheet next to your normal value  titled DDvalue and put =(cell next to it)*1.548  then just drag it down the spread sheet to get all players. Then on draft day you have a high and low mark for a player. The normal value is the ideal of what you could get a player for. The DDvalue is the actual value they are worth based on all keepers. Very few people if anyone else in your league will know this actual value so while others think you are going over cost, you may actually be saving some $$ if you are under the DDvalue amount. Still you need to try to hit a sleeper or two at low cost to get those MJDs for $7 in the future.

If you do not have a spread sheet set up and don’t want to put the work in you can go to any website you like (Yahoo, CBS, ESPN, ect) and copy one into excel and just format it. I would recommend making one yourself but you may not have the time at this point in the preseason.

Also in a league like this you want to try a little harder for the homerun player and may even want to sacrifice this season to get some solid options for next year. You can win a league like this without good keepers but it is much tougher. One season in a snake draft keeper I traded my #2 overall pick for a 3, 5, and 7th rounder to build for the future. 10th rounder that year was Arian Foster so it worked out well but you never know.

You have to get creative in leagues where you start out behind the 8ball.

Good luck in your prep!

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Re: Keeper Kalculations

xlledx wrote:

Very well done Beaver.

Thanks! Always nice to get a pat on the back big_smile

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